Claim transition ledger

Project ROME is Rockstar's GTA 6 first-party modding and private-server platform → Watching

Seeded under the narrow scope expansion to Rockstar platform-reality (operator decision 2026-06-19). Tracks Project ROME, the rumored Rockstar Online Modding Engine reported by insiders including Tez2 and tier 2 press including Vice as a first-party GTA 6 modding and private-server platform replacing FiveM. Watching at tier 3 unverified because no first-party confirmation has surfaced. Streamer intent such as the Adin Ross server plan is excluded per the scope-discipline invariants; this claim adjudicates platform reality only.

GTA 6 pre-orders open June 25, 2026 → Confirmed

Seeded on the June 18, 2026 first-party announcement that GTA VI pre-orders open June 25 on digital storefronts, with the official cover art revealed and the November 19, 2026 launch reaffirmed. Anchored to the Rockstar Newswire post and the official GTA VI page, corroborated by tier 2 press carries (OpenCritic, GamesRadar, Kotaku, GamingBible, BroBible) and two tier 3 community threads.

Piper Sandler initiates Take-Two at $280 on GTA 6 demand → Watching

Initial seed: GTABoom relays a Piper Sandler initiation of Take-Two at $280, dated June 2. Single amplification carrier; watching until a financial-press or primary-note row lands.

Rockstar hires AI roles scoped to GTA 6 tooling rather than shipped content → Watching

Initial seed: GTABoom carries the tools-scope reading of Rockstar AI hiring. The careers surface is first-party observable, so the confirmation path is concrete.

Ski Mask the Slump God and XXXTentacion appear on the GTA 6 soundtrack → Watching

Initial seed: artist self-claim relayed by GTABoom. Watching at low confidence until first-party music material exists to check it against.

A counter-programming cluster dates titles inside GTA 6's November window → Corroborated

Initial seed: PC Gamer and two GameSpot rows document a counter-programming cluster dating titles into November 2026. One date is a relayed Dealabs report and is labeled as such on the chain.

Rockstar runs a compressed marketing window for GTA 6 → Watching

Initial seed: amplification-carried compression thesis that the desk's silence instruments already lean toward. Watching until a campaign exists to measure.

GTA 6 needs record unit sales to break even → Watching

Initial seed: amplification-carried break-even thesis. The cost anchor is already tier 1 on the register; the record framing waits for named analyst math.

Barbie Rewind dates November 12, one week before GTA 6 → Corroborated

Initial seed: GameSpot carries the Atari and Digital Eclipse November 12 date for Barbie Rewind. Major-press dated fact enters corroborated per the mw4-october precedent.

GTA 6 pushes more 2026 games into the September release window → Corroborated

Initial seed: Eurogamer and PC Gamer document September calendar compression around GTA 6. GTABoom adds breadth.

GTA 6 trailer was absent from June 2026 PlayStation State of Play → Watching

Remedy CEO expects GTA 6 to lift the wider games market for Control Resonant → Watching

Initial seed: PC Gamer reports the Remedy CEO expecting GTA 6 to lift the games market.

Take-Two CEO frames GTA 6 demand as resilient against rising consumer costs → Corroborated

Initial seed: GameSpot reports Zelnick framing GTA 6 demand as resilient against rising costs.

Take-Two FY2026 10-K reports $2,149.7M in capitalized costs for unreleased titles → Confirmed

Initial seed: Take-Two FY2026 10-K Note 7 anchors $2,149.7M for unreleased titles.

Rockstar Game Workers Union launches publicly during the GTA 6 year → Corroborated

Initial seed: Eurogamer and PC Gamer report the public union launch six months before GTA 6.

GTA 5 surpasses 225 million units in latest Take-Two filing → Corroborated

Initial seed: Take-Two FY2026 10-K anchors GTA 5 sell-in over 225 million units.

Call of Duty Modern Warfare 4 dates October 23, ahead of GTA 6 on November 19 → Corroborated

Initial seed: GameSpot dates Modern Warfare 4 to October 23, 27 days before GTA 6.

Fable reboot slips to February 2027, away from the GTA 6 launch window → Corroborated

Initial seed: Eurogamer and Push Square report the Fable reboot moving to February 2027.

Take-Two CEO ties expected GTA 6 review scores to the Rockstar quality record → Corroborated

Initial seed: GameSpot reports Zelnick expecting high GTA 6 review scores.

GTA 6 preorder hype drives a visible malware and phishing scam cycle → Watching

Initial seed: Insider Gaming reports a malware and phishing surge around GTA 6 preorder hype.

GTA 6 delays pose a financial risk to Take-Two tied to $2.15B in capitalized development costs → Watching

GTA VI PC release likely 2027, not launch-day November 2026 → Watching

Xbox storefront page surfaces GTA VI ahead of November 2026 launch → Watching

GTA 6 pre-orders open on May 12, 2026 → Killed

The 2026-05-12T23:59:59Z kill condition fired: no Rockstar Newswire pre-order announcement on GTA 6 was published on or before May 12. Operator review on 2026-05-18 confirms no pre-orders opened during the May-12 window. The May 18 to 21 Best Buy email window is tracked as a separate related claim (gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim); a later cohort signal predicting a different window is not evidence the May-12 prediction was correct, so May 18 does not retroactively rescue May 12. Confidence band held at tier 3 unverified because the register's band vocabulary has no killed-specific value; the band reflects the claim's source tier (a tier 3 community cohort prediction), not its verification status, which is killed/verified-false. Band-vocabulary gap registered as a known semantic imprecision.

GTA 6 launches November 19, 2026 → Confirmed

May 17, 2026 SEC EDGAR re-audit under the strict standard from Track A. EDGAR observations carry filing metadata only; tier 1 placement requires body content speaking to the specific claim, not right-quarter proximity. The Q3 FY26 10-Q body was read once through the existing edgartools identity (body sha256 432aa73e) and contains the verbatim launch anchor; the row is retained as content-anchored tier 1 official regulatory. The Q3 FY26 8-K body (sha256 bdb60920) is silent on the launch date — proximity-only — and is removed from the chain. The take2_ir Q2 FY26 earnings release remains the chain's tier 1 official anchor and the Eurogamer rows remain unchanged. Verdict held at confirmed 88. Chain rigor correction, not verdict movement.

Take-Two reports Q4 and Fiscal Year 2026 results on May 21, 2026 → Confirmed

May 17, 2026 SEC EDGAR re-audit under the strict standard from Track A. Both Q3 FY26 EDGAR rows are removed. The 8-K body (sha256 bdb60920) is silent on Q4 FY26 and May 21 earnings-event timing. The 10-Q body (sha256 432aa73e) is a Q3 quarterly report whose forward-looking section does not discuss its own future earnings-call date — proximity-only. The take2_ir Q4 FY26 earnings calendar announcement remains the chain's tier 1 official anchor and the GTABoom row is unchanged. Verdict held at confirmed 84. The claim's confirm-evidence was always the IR calendar announcement, not the Q3 quarterly. Chain rigor correction, not verdict movement.

GTA 6 anchors Take-Two Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance → Watching

May 17, 2026 SEC EDGAR re-audit under the strict standard from Track A. The Q3 FY26 10-Q body (sha256 432aa73e) places the November 19, 2026 launch inside Take-Two's fiscal year 2027 — the row is retained as content-anchored tier 1 official regulatory. The Q3 FY26 8-K body (sha256 bdb60920) is silent on FY27 — proximity-only — and is removed. The Push Square row is unchanged. The chain goes from three rows to two; the surviving 10-Q is now content-anchored rather than proximity-presented. Verdict held at watching 58. Chain rigor correction, not verdict movement.

GTA 6 pre-orders open May 18 to 21 per a claimed Best Buy affiliate email → Contested

May 17, 2026 chain completion. VGC tier 2 press carrier added as entry 11 on the Best Buy preorder chain. Verdict and confidence held at contested 35; the May 16 Insider Gaming walkback row remains the load-bearing audit-trail signal. VGC adds independent tier 2 press depth alongside the existing Insider Gaming, NotebookCheck, and GameSpot tier 2 carries. No verdict ladder movement; this is chain rigor.

GTA 6 pre-orders open May 18 to 21 per a claimed Best Buy affiliate email → Contested

May 16, 2026 audit-trail correction. Insider Gaming walked back the May 18 preorder timing on Insider Gaming Weekly Episode 62 (a video podcast featuring four panelists including Tom Henderson), while maintaining their May 14 position that the Best Buy affiliate email is legitimate. The panel characterised a May 18 preorder open as very unlikely and pointed to the May 21 Take-Two Q4 earnings call as the more likely GTA-related event window. The verdict moves corroborated to contested at confidence 35. The May 14 Insider Gaming amplification row stays on the chain so the same-outlet walkback is visible alongside the original carry. The Frogboyx1 affiliate-email screenshot row and the GameSpot stock-surge amplification row remain on the chain. observed_at on the new walkback row is derived from a YouTube 23 hours ago relative marker captured by the operator around 2026-05-16 19:55 UTC, placing the broadcast around 2026-05-15 21:00 UTC; the source link carries the underlying audio for independent verification. No verbatim panel quote is recorded. The May 18 to 21 window still governs: a Best Buy public storefront listing inside the window moves the verdict toward confirmed; the window passing with no public listing moves the verdict toward killed.

Best Buy preorder discourse now includes legitimacy doubts alongside press verification, keeping the window unresolved until first-party confirmation → Watching

May 16, 2026 evidence reinforcement. The Insider Gaming walkback row (Insider Gaming Weekly Episode 62, derived broadcast around 2026-05-15 21:00 UTC) is added to the chain. The verdict stays at watching: the walkback strengthens the unresolved-legitimacy state this claim was created to track rather than transitioning it. The Insider Gaming May 14 amplification row remains on the chain so the same-outlet contradiction is visible. The May 18 to 21 window governs primary verdict movement on the canonical Best Buy claim.

GTA 6 launches November 19, 2026 → Confirmed

May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. SEC EDGAR scheduler captured the prior Q3 FY26 8-K and 10-Q filings as tier 1 official regulatory audit-trail strengthening alongside the existing Take-Two IR launch-date anchor. Verdict held at confirmed. Confidence band and confidence score unchanged.

Take-Two reports Q4 and Fiscal Year 2026 results on May 21, 2026 → Confirmed

May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. SEC EDGAR scheduler captured the prior Q3 FY26 8-K and 10-Q filings as tier 1 official regulatory context for the upcoming May 21 Take-Two Q4 FY26 earnings event. Verdict held at confirmed. Confidence band and confidence score unchanged.

GTA 6 anchors Take-Two Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance → Watching

May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. SEC EDGAR scheduler captured the prior Q3 FY26 8-K and 10-Q filings as tier 1 official regulatory framing context for the Fiscal 2027 revenue anchor. The May 21 Q4 FY26 earnings call remains the primary first-party reaffirmation event. Verdict held at watching. Confidence band and confidence score unchanged.

GTA 6 pre-orders open May 18 to 21 per a claimed Best Buy affiliate email → Corroborated

May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. Insider Gaming carried an independent May 14 preorder-date article and GameSpot carried a May 14 stock-surge article, both at tier 2 amplification. Verdict held at corroborated. First-party confirmation from Rockstar Newswire, Take-Two IR, PlayStation Blog, Xbox Wire, or a Best Buy public retail listing required for transition to confirmed. Window May 18 to 21.

GTA 6 Trailer 3 lands in May 2026 → Watching

May 15, 2026 feed-health correction and silence reaffirmation. The Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed was reviewed manually on May 15 and is reachable, correcting the prior feed-readiness issue. The latest feed entries do not contain a GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset. Tier 1 official absence holds. The May 31 window has not expired.

The May 2026 press cycle separates consumer-price pressure signals from Rockstar pricing confirmation evidence → Watching

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Take-Two stock moved higher during the May 2026 GTA 6 preorder speculation cycle → Corroborated

May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. GTABoom carried a May 14 Take-Two $2 billion market-value article at tier 2 amplification. The GameSpot stock-surge article remains the V2 anchor for market-cap coverage and is not re-recorded. Market-cap movement does not constitute Rockstar preorder confirmation. Verdict held at corroborated.

Best Buy preorder discourse now includes legitimacy doubts alongside press verification, keeping the window unresolved until first-party confirmation → Watching

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GTA 6 price-willingness polling is visible in the May 2026 preorder cycle while first-party pricing remains absent → Watching

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GTA 6 /VI page preorder tracking code remains a community-attributed launch-readiness signal → Watching

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Press carriers describe the May 2026 Best Buy signal as physical preorder channel evidence rather than digital-only launch confirmation → Corroborated

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Take-Two Interactive Investor Relations has not added a post-May-11 GTA 6 corporate notice in the current RSS window → Confirmed

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Rockstar faces renewed UK political pressure over alleged union-busting dismissals during the GTA 6 launch year → Corroborated

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PlayStation Blog and Xbox Wire have not published GTA 6 preload or day-1 patch guidance in current feed windows → Confirmed

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Analyst pressure for an $80 GTA 6 base price is visible in the May 2026 preorder news cycle → Watching

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GTA 6 launches November 19, 2026 → Confirmed

May 14, 2026 press cohort delay-risk framing review. Eurogamer (tier 2) frames the May preorder leak cycle as lowering near-term delay risk; the framing does not replace the Take-Two launch-date anchor. Push Square prior fiscal framing and Insider Gaming prior reaffirmation are referenced through the existing related-claim graph. Tier 1 launch date confirmation (November 19, 2026) unchanged.

GTA 6 Trailer 3 lands in May 2026 → Watching

May 14, 2026 official-silence review. Manual review of the Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed shows no GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset in the current feed window (tier 1 official absence). Tier 2 press speculation around the Best Buy preorder cycle continues without first-party confirmation. Verdict held at watching.

PlayStation Blog and Xbox Wire have not published GTA 6 preorder posts in current feed windows → Confirmed

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Take-Two stock moved higher during the May 2026 GTA 6 preorder speculation cycle → Corroborated

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Take-Two Interactive scheduled for May 28 TD Cowen TMT conference appearance → Confirmed

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UK retailer pricing claims for GTA 6 remain unconfirmed by Rockstar or platform-holder sources → Contested

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Rockstar Games YouTube channel has not posted a GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset in the current feed window → Confirmed

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Rockstar continued GTA Online live-ops support through official YouTube posts during the GTA 6 pre-launch window → Confirmed

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Rockstar GTA 6 launch marketing campaign begins in summer 2026 → Watching

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GTA 6 pre-orders open May 18 to 21 per a claimed Best Buy affiliate email → Watching

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GTA 6 Trailer 3 lands in May 2026 → Watching

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Take-Two reports Q4 and Fiscal Year 2026 results on May 21, 2026 → Confirmed

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GTA 6 anchors Take-Two Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance → Watching

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GTA 6 pre-orders open on May 12, 2026 → Watching

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GTA 6 console exclusivity window is decoupled from the Sony marketing deal → Corroborated

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GTA Online generates over one million dollars per day in revenue → Watching

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GTA 6 pre-orders open May 18 to 21 per a claimed Best Buy affiliate email → Corroborated

@charlieINTEL tier 2 amplification with an independent Best Buy backend Compensation field screenshot. NotebookCheck tier 2 carrier in place. Five independent tier 3 sources span a three-hour cohort window. Verdict moves watching to corroborated. Confidence held at 55 pending tier 1 confirmation.

GTA 6 marketing campaign during 2026 FIFA World Cup → Watching

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Take-Two frames AI as a possible cost-control tool before GTA 6 → Watching

GTA 6 release window is console-first by design → Corroborated

Sony nudges PS4 owners to PS5 ahead of GTA 6 → Watching

GTA 6 release window is console-first by design → Confirmed

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GTA 6 launches November 19, 2026 → Confirmed

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Take-Two frames AI as a possible cost-control tool before GTA 6 → Confirmed

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Sony nudges PS4 owners to PS5 ahead of GTA 6 → Confirmed

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GTA 6 launches November 19, 2026 → Confirmed

Take-Two Q3 FY26 release reaffirmed: "highly confident as we approach Fiscal 2027 ... led by the November 19th release." Push Square (Sammy Barker) and Insider Gaming (Andrew Highton, quoting Tom Henderson) amplified at tier 2.