{ "spec_version": "radarsix-provenance/1", "algorithm": "sha256", "claim_count": 52, "register_root": "305aabc3ffd9c0fa60f8280f5f706b2fae2b8bba0c54e993f2584fff74e28a5a", "source": "https://radarsix.com/api/dashboard/claims", "spec": "https://radarsix.com/provenance", "claims": [ { "id": "fable-2027-delay-gta6-scheduling-pressure", "digest": "a1faf7bcbd2757656103797acf33b541784ec476990d449632d52d222460ff78", "canonical": { "id": "fable-2027-delay-gta6-scheduling-pressure", "title": "Fable reboot slips to February 2027, away from the GTA 6 launch window", "short": "Eurogamer and Push Square reported Microsoft moving the Fable reboot to February 2027 so it can have a dedicated moment away from the November 2026 GTA 6 launch. Tier 2 reporting reads the delay as GTA 6 scheduling pressure.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 64, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Microsoft publishes a Fable release date in February 2027 on an official channel", "A platform storefront lists the Fable reboot with a 2027 release window" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Microsoft restores a 2026 Fable release date", "Microsoft attributes the Fable delay to a cause unrelated to launch-window timing" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "mw4-october-date-before-gta6" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1e35f899c81e8e39b33b40dc", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/fable-reboot-delayed-2027-amid-reported-gta-6-worries", "label": "Eurogamer on the Fable reboot delay to 2027 amid GTA 6 worries" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_d9dfabef76b3dd2f117eb4a7", "source": "pushsquare", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/05/fable-ps5-delayed-moved-away-from-gta-6-for-the-dedicated-moment-it-deserves", "label": "Push Square on Microsoft moving Fable to February 2027" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_324a9f735e4043f59da44866", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2060408039149043790", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown relays Fable's late-2026 to February 2027 move away from the GTA 6 window (X Sentinel Session 6)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: Eurogamer and Push Square report the Fable reboot moving to February 2027." }, { "at": "2026-06-03T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 6 (xsentinel_20260602_073812). Verdict held corroborated, confidence_score held 64. Aggregator relay of an event already anchored by the claim's existing rows; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." } ] } }, { "id": "gta-online-million-dollar-daily-revenue", "digest": "0e01df4c843c815cde1fa06eeb233207267593ae0ac16c0858e560668cf3b88e", "canonical": { "id": "gta-online-million-dollar-daily-revenue", "title": "GTA Online generates over one million dollars per day in revenue", "short": "ShinyHunters leak surfaced internal Rockstar revenue figures showing GTA Online generates over one million dollars per day across five platforms.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 50, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Take-Two 10-Q or 10-K segment disclosure that aligns GTA Online revenue with a daily run-rate at or above one million dollars", "A Rockstar Games statement that confirms or refines the leaked daily revenue figure without retraction" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Take-Two filing that places GTA Online daily revenue meaningfully below one million dollars (a swing of more than fifty percent below the leaked figure)", "A Rockstar Games retraction or denial of the leaked figure", "90 days from publish with no tier 1 confirmation of the daily run-rate" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-ai-cost-control-frame" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a93713eb1fea8caeae3bf103", "source": "press_vgc", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/rockstar-hackers-actually-made-take-twos-stock-increase-after-leaking-how-much-gta-online-is-making/", "label": "VGC on the leaked GTA Online daily revenue figure" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_0b610128f206d10a01d4814a", "source": "press_insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://insider-gaming.com/gta-leak-raises-take-two-interactive-stock-value-by-over-1-billion/", "label": "Insider Gaming on the Take-Two stock reaction to the leak" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta5-230m-sales-before-gta6-window", "digest": "023ec4487e8c5516b68bbc9a3b7d275c63d80201fbbdc56b8948f39692a06cae", "canonical": { "id": "gta5-230m-sales-before-gta6-window", "title": "GTA 5 surpasses 225 million units in latest Take-Two filing", "short": "The Take-Two FY2026 10-K states Grand Theft Auto V has sold-in over 225 million units worldwide. Push Square reads the latest earnings figure as approaching 230 million. Tier 1 filing anchor with tier 2 trajectory context.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 70, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A later Take-Two filing reports Grand Theft Auto V sell-in at or above 230 million units", "Take-Two prepared remarks cite a Grand Theft Auto V figure approaching 230 million units" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Take-Two restatement reduces the Grand Theft Auto V sell-in figure below 225 million units", "A later filing removes the Grand Theft Auto V cumulative sell-in disclosure" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-unreleased-software-costs-2149m-fy26", "gta-online-million-dollar-daily-revenue" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_446ec545449a6d17c9b947d5", "source": "edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037434/ttwo-20260331.htm", "label": "Take-Two FY2026 10-K: GTA V sold-in over 225 million units" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_63e7484c109027a386755353", "source": "pushsquare", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/05/only-gta-6-stands-a-chance-of-outdoing-gta-5s-unbelievable-230-million-units-sold", "label": "Push Square on the revised GTA 5 unit figure approaching 230 million" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_659c18518b14da65dbd8c40d", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-v-keeps-selling-millions-and-gta-6-is-five-months-away-ed49", "label": "GTABoom GTA 5 pre-GTA6 sales corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: Take-Two FY2026 10-K anchors GTA 5 sell-in over 225 million units." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct GTA 5 sales / pre-GTA6 window corroborator" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-analyst-80-pricing-pressure-2026-05", "digest": "d32f28b2673daec1695c91e6830243d0f6d592bc957e82ee5264455bd26a61bb", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-analyst-80-pricing-pressure-2026-05", "title": "Analyst pressure for an $80 GTA 6 base price is visible in the May 2026 preorder news cycle", "short": "VGC carried Bank of America analyst commentary arguing Rockstar should raise GTA 6 base price to $80. The desk treats it as tier 2 reporting of analyst pressure. It does not record a Take-Two pricing commitment. Tier 1 confirmation absent across IR, Newswire, and platform feeds.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 30, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire confirms an $80 GTA 6 base price", "Multiple tier 2 carriers independently report a Take-Two pricing decision matching the $80 figure", "A platform holder publishes regional pricing that resolves to an $80 base across major markets" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire confirms a GTA 6 base price differing from $80", "Analyst pressure for the $80 figure fades from press coverage without a corresponding pricing decision", "90 days from publish with no first-party pricing confirmation referencing the $80 figure" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-uk-retailer-pricing-unconfirmed", "gta6-best-buy-physical-preorder-channel-framing" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3391e9560337949a6e9accc6", "source": "press_vgc", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/best-buy-tells-affiliates-its-starting-gta-6-pre-orders-next-week-sparking-speculation-that-a-new-trailer-is-coming/", "label": "VGC: Bank of America analyst commentary on the case for an $80 GTA 6 base price" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T06:22:38+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-barbie-rewind-november-12-counter-release", "digest": "c4c2c51def2bfc0be1ab226f1c0f5cce796eb8bc069a5c39dfedabcc1f31447d", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-barbie-rewind-november-12-counter-release", "title": "Barbie Rewind dates November 12, one week before GTA 6", "short": "GameSpot reports Atari and Digital Eclipse dating Barbie Rewind, a 16-game compilation, to November 12, 2026, a week before GTA 6. It is the most concrete counter-example to the cleared-November pattern the register tracks on the compression claim.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 62, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Atari or Digital Eclipse first-party channel states the November 12, 2026 date", "Storefront listings carry the November 12 date at preorder open" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Barbie Rewind moves out of November 2026", "The reported date is corrected by the publisher before release" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-september-release-compression-2026", "gta6-november-counter-programming-cluster", "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b311064a37e8bd6b87bc1023", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-gets-its-barbenheimer-as-barbie-compilation-sets-a-november-release/", "label": "GameSpot on Atari and Digital Eclipse dating Barbie Rewind to November 12, 2026" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: GameSpot carries the Atari and Digital Eclipse November 12 date for Barbie Rewind. Major-press dated fact enters corroborated per the mw4-october precedent." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-best-buy-physical-preorder-channel-framing", "digest": "d73cf533ff82956830c3fda387263f4e0a016cafe9babdbd9e3fde1f47bca894", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-best-buy-physical-preorder-channel-framing", "title": "Press carriers describe the May 2026 Best Buy signal as physical preorder channel evidence rather than digital-only launch confirmation", "short": "Push Square and VGC frame the May 14 Best Buy preorder signal as physical retail channel evidence via affiliate-link implications. Tier 2 amplification distinguishes physical retailer activity from digital launch confirmation. No first-party digital preorder post yet.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 65, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire confirms a physical retail preorder channel for GTA 6", "A platform holder confirms a digital preorder window distinct from the physical retailer activity", "A second tier 2 outlet carries the same physical-channel framing from independent reporting" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Both tier 2 press carriers retract the physical-channel framing in subsequent coverage", "The Best Buy retailer listing is removed before the May 18 to May 21 window opens", "Rockstar opens GTA 6 digital preorders inside the May window in a way that subordinates the physical-channel framing" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-uk-retailer-pricing-unconfirmed" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_9707e1c65b0a9e06ca47b74b", "source": "press_pushsquare", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/05/of-course-theres-already-a-new-gta-6-pre-orders-conspiracy-theory", "label": "Push Square: Best Buy preorder signal framed around physical-retail affiliate implications" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3391e9560337949a6e9accc6", "source": "press_vgc", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/best-buy-tells-affiliates-its-starting-gta-6-pre-orders-next-week-sparking-speculation-that-a-new-trailer-is-coming/", "label": "VGC: Best Buy affiliate preorder cycle coverage with physical-channel framing" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_0046615611bf87430a3567cd", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/the-best-buy-date-was-wrong-but-wednesday-changes-everything-for-gta-6-5d75", "label": "GTABoom Best Buy Wednesday timing corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1a0cba3d9d34edf6e513a439", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/best-buy-just-accidentally-leaked-the-exact-date-gta-6-pre-orders-go-live-d60f", "label": "GTABoom Best Buy leak corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1053166a9a8e27024a7c5714", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-pre-orders-may-not-open-monday-despite-the-best-buy-leak-eeb9", "label": "GTABoom Best Buy leak timing-caution corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T06:22:38+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct Best Buy timing-row corroborator" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct Best Buy leak row" }, { "at": "2026-06-10T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.8 attached 1 GTABoom tier_2 amplification corroboration (pre-orders may not open Monday despite Best Buy leak). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held at corroborated/65/confirmed_major_press; evidence breadth only." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "digest": "17ea685ae0c550f0ec32a19b76876a13579ef3480d6bbf243aa31c8d06f84893", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "title": "GTA 6 pre-orders open May 18 to 21 per a claimed Best Buy affiliate email", "short": "Two tier 2 outlets and five tier 3 cohort sources converge on a Best Buy affiliate email for a GTA 6 pre-order campaign May 18 to 21. CharlieIntel carries an independent screenshot of the Best Buy backend Compensation field.", "current_verdict": "killed", "confidence_score": 0, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Best Buy publishes a public storefront listing for GTA 6 pre-orders inside the May 18 to May 21 window", "A Rockstar Newswire pre-order post on GTA 6 lands inside the May 18 to May 21 window", "A second independent retailer opens GTA 6 pre-orders inside the same window" ], "kill_conditions": [ "2026-05-22T23:59:59Z elapses with no Best Buy public pre-order listing for GTA 6", "Best Buy or Take-Two explicitly denies the May 18 to 21 campaign window", "No screenshot of the affiliate email surfaces beyond the original Frogboyx1Gaming capture within 48 hours of this draft, and no tier 2 outlet stands by the leak by 2026-05-16", "90 days from publish with no tier 1 corroboration of the pre-order window" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-may-12-preorder-cohort-prediction", "gta6-trailer-3-may-window", "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_8b6a4c703bc10d3807d396ee", "source": "x_charlieintel", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/charlieINTEL", "label": "CharlieIntel on the Best Buy backend Compensation field screenshot" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_8554aeee0774bbcd5473543e", "source": "press_notebookcheck", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.notebookcheck.net/Best-Buy-leaks-GTA-6-pre-order-date-with-price-and-trailer-reveal-possibly-imminent.1296694.0.html", "label": "NotebookCheck on the Best Buy pre-order leak" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f53b31538f7ea569938c13ae", "source": "x_frogboyx1gaming", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://xcancel.com/Frogboyx1Gaming/status/2054749929919422489", "label": "@Frogboyx1Gaming livestream showing the affiliate email" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ea3db96c7375a030fc5fc296", "source": "x_shiinabr", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/ShiinaBR", "label": "@ShiinaBR earliest verified amplification at 06:20 UTC" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_5eaaacff02e929204ea7230e", "source": "x_hypex", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/HYPEX", "label": "@HYPEX highest-velocity amplification at 06:29 UTC, 471k views" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_48c9ab412241b8c49558ae61", "source": "x_synthpotato", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/SynthPotato", "label": "@SynthPotato on the Best Buy affiliate email at 06:52 UTC" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_7285889aed24dfd80b428da4", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown screenshot of the Best Buy campaign-duration field" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b33f0bd3cf001f426e796f0a", "source": "press_insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://insider-gaming.com/gta-6-pre-order-date-has-allegedly-leaked-via-best-buy/", "label": "Insider Gaming: independent verification of the Best Buy preorder-date leak" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6e5f51b50245f15fb3f5ed87", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-owners-stock-price-surges-after-news-that-preorders-may-start-soon/1100-6539957/", "label": "GameSpot on Take-Two stock surge during the preorder speculation cycle" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a25e0cbaf482ff7f4cdfbe83", "source": "press_insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 walkback", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUBHxi6vS7g&t=2680s", "label": "Insider Gaming / Tom Henderson walkback on May 18 preorder timing (email legitimacy held; Insider Gaming Weekly Episode 62)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_97d3c95a6ecd18a19e062ed6", "source": "press_vgc", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/best-buy-tells-affiliates-its-starting-gta-6-pre-orders-next-week-sparking-speculation-that-a-new-trailer-is-coming/", "label": "VGC on Best Buy affiliate email opening GTA 6 preorders next week" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_651f1261b32e4ed48a7106fc", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2061882243547635796", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown reports no Best Buy/store/preload activation in June window, May 18-21 Best Buy preorder window stays killed/closed (X Sentinel Session 7)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-14T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "@charlieINTEL tier 2 amplification with an independent Best Buy backend Compensation field screenshot. NotebookCheck tier 2 carrier in place. Five independent tier 3 sources span a three-hour cohort window. Verdict moves watching to corroborated. Confidence held at 55 pending tier 1 confirmation." }, { "at": "2026-05-15T07:15:22+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. Insider Gaming carried an independent May 14 preorder-date article and GameSpot carried a May 14 stock-surge article, both at tier 2 amplification. Verdict held at corroborated. First-party confirmation from Rockstar Newswire, Take-Two IR, PlayStation Blog, Xbox Wire, or a Best Buy public retail listing required for transition to confirmed. Window May 18 to 21." }, { "at": "2026-05-16T19:55:00+00:00", "to": "contested", "note": "May 16, 2026 audit-trail correction. Insider Gaming walked back the May 18 preorder timing on Insider Gaming Weekly Episode 62 (a video podcast featuring four panelists including Tom Henderson), while maintaining their May 14 position that the Best Buy affiliate email is legitimate. The panel characterised a May 18 preorder open as very unlikely and pointed to the May 21 Take-Two Q4 earnings call as the more likely GTA-related event window. The verdict moves corroborated to contested at confidence 35. The May 14 Insider Gaming amplification row stays on the chain so the same-outlet walkback is visible alongside the original carry. The Frogboyx1 affiliate-email screenshot row and the GameSpot stock-surge amplification row remain on the chain. observed_at on the new walkback row is derived from a YouTube 23 hours ago relative marker captured by the operator around 2026-05-16 19:55 UTC, placing the broadcast around 2026-05-15 21:00 UTC; the source link carries the underlying audio for independent verification. No verbatim panel quote is recorded. The May 18 to 21 window still governs: a Best Buy public storefront listing inside the window moves the verdict toward confirmed; the window passing with no public listing moves the verdict toward killed." }, { "at": "2026-05-17T18:00:00+00:00", "to": "contested", "note": "May 17, 2026 chain completion. VGC tier_2 press carrier added as entry 11 on the Best Buy preorder chain. Verdict and confidence held at contested 35; the May 16 Insider Gaming walkback row remains the load-bearing audit-trail signal. VGC adds independent tier_2 press depth alongside the existing Insider Gaming, NotebookCheck, and GameSpot tier_2 carries. No verdict ladder movement; this is chain rigor." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "contested", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held contested, confidence_score held 35. @GTAVI_Countdown social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-15T17:00:00+00:00", "to": "contested", "note": "Operator adjudication, 2026-06-15. The first kill condition window (2026-05-22T23:59:59Z, no Best Buy public pre-order listing for GTA 6) elapsed 24 days ago. The May 16 Insider Gaming walkback contradiction holds as live evidence of an active dispute, and the most recent record action on June 6 was an X Sentinel hold at contested, not a resolution. Operator decision: the verdict stays contested. A claim carrying conflicting evidence chains is contested by definition, and the evidence is resolved in neither direction, so the standing contradiction takes precedence over the time-based kill condition. The kill condition stays on the record unchanged; future evidence such as a Best Buy listing, a first-party post, or a credible leak can still move the verdict. Confidence held at 35." }, { "at": "2026-06-19T13:15:00+00:00", "to": "killed", "note": "Preorder-announcement adjudication, 2026-06-19. The Best Buy May 18 to 21 window is superseded by the Rockstar official announcement that pre-orders open June 25, 2026. Tier 1 first-party confirmation on the official GTA VI page and the June 18, 2026 Rockstar Newswire post, with convergent tier 2 press carries. The May 16 Insider Gaming tier 2 walkback contradiction is now confirmed by the official June 25 date: the dated window the claim asserted did not occur. Verdict contested to killed, confidence 35 to 0. See gta6-preorders-open-june-25-2026." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-best-buy-press-verification-legitimacy-discourse", "digest": "8d10a457eee0cb8475632d02c0f0e5c8e73b78e193f604fcd58e56c31ea42b1e", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-best-buy-press-verification-legitimacy-discourse", "title": "Best Buy preorder discourse now includes legitimacy doubts alongside press verification, keeping the window unresolved until first-party confirmation", "short": "Insider Gaming carried independent press verification of the Best Buy preorder leak. Reddit attribution surfaces /VI page tracking code and legitimacy doubts. The desk treats the discourse as unresolved. Tier 1 confirmation absent across IR, Newswire, and platform feeds.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 35, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "A platform holder publishes a preorder post that resolves the Best Buy verification discourse", "Multiple tier 2 carriers stand by the independent Best Buy verification through the May 18 to May 21 window", "Rockstar Newswire publishes a preorder post that resolves /VI page tracking code attribution" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire confirms or denies Best Buy preorder availability inside the May window", "Best Buy publishes a public storefront listing for GTA 6 preorders with verifiable purchase fulfillment", "Tier 2 press carriers retract the independent verification without a replacement source", "90 days from publish with no first-party engagement on the Best Buy verification discourse" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-vi-page-preorder-code-readiness-signal", "gta6-best-buy-physical-preorder-channel-framing" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b33f0bd3cf001f426e796f0a", "source": "press_insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://insider-gaming.com/gta-6-pre-order-date-has-allegedly-leaked-via-best-buy/", "label": "Insider Gaming: independent press verification of the Best Buy preorder leak" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f5f5eb51c2d78dc93f8b0480", "source": "reddit_gamingleaksandrumours", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/GamingLeaksAndRumours/comments/1tcvgt0/insider_gaming_has_been_able_to_independently/", "label": "r/GamingLeaksAndRumours: thread carrying Insider Gaming Best Buy verification into the cohort" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_e31c279571f6efe015e2907e", "source": "reddit_gamingleaksandrumours", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/GamingLeaksAndRumours/search/?q=%2FVI%20preorder%20code&restrict_sr=1", "label": "r/GamingLeaksAndRumours: community page-inspection post on /VI preorder tracking code" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_27b669ddf47f5395a6ec41bf", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases", "label": "Take-Two IR RSS feed: no GTA 6 preorder confirmation in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_22356b5d1fc2100b66fd587d", "source": "playstation_blog", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://blog.playstation.com/feed/", "label": "PlayStation Blog RSS feed: no GTA 6 preorder confirmation in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f6b7c7f2364e357902604447", "source": "xbox_wire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/feed/", "label": "Xbox Wire RSS feed: no GTA 6 preorder confirmation in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a25e0cbaf482ff7f4cdfbe83", "source": "press_insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 walkback", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YUBHxi6vS7g&t=2680s", "label": "Insider Gaming / Tom Henderson walkback on May 18 preorder timing (email legitimacy held; Insider Gaming Weekly Episode 62)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T07:15:22+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-16T19:55:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "May 16, 2026 evidence reinforcement. The Insider Gaming walkback row (Insider Gaming Weekly Episode 62, derived broadcast around 2026-05-15 21:00 UTC) is added to the chain. The verdict stays at watching: the walkback strengthens the unresolved-legitimacy state this claim was created to track rather than transitioning it. The Insider Gaming May 14 amplification row remains on the chain so the same-outlet contradiction is visible. The May 18 to 21 window governs primary verdict movement on the canonical Best Buy claim." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-break-even-record-unit-threshold", "digest": "94057800bf8ec15fd9eda4de2d126c19b6250a43852d8c49ea2aa007f9561b0a", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-break-even-record-unit-threshold", "title": "GTA 6 needs record unit sales to break even", "short": "GTABoom argues GTA 6 carries the highest break-even unit threshold of any entertainment release, building on disclosed capitalized costs. The cost side has a tier 1 anchor on the register; the unit math has no named bank or filing behind it yet.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 38, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "A named bank or research firm publishes a break-even unit estimate exceeding documented prior entertainment launches", "Take-Two discloses launch-window cost or unit figures that support the threshold math" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A documented comparison shows a prior entertainment release with a higher break-even threshold", "Disclosed figures put the GTA 6 threshold materially below the claimed record" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-unreleased-software-costs-2149m-fy26", "gta6-delay-take2-financial-risk", "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_5eb0866da8cc9c7dfbe87818", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/how-many-copies-does-gta-6-need-to-sell-before-rockstar-makes-money-c2c9", "label": "GTABoom on the GTA 6 break-even unit threshold built from disclosed development costs" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: amplification-carried break-even thesis. The cost anchor is already tier 1 on the register; the record framing waits for named analyst math." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-console-first-by-design", "digest": "4703391177ae5d3b53dac28691e60a6820b1694d2572ed497f31d88342791d96", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-console-first-by-design", "title": "GTA 6 release window is console-first by design", "short": "PS5 marketing deal plus Take-Two PC-not-core framing points to console-first launch.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 60, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A PlayStation, Rockstar, or Take-Two page confirming console-first timing", "Platform marketing-rights filings reinforcing the deal" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A first-party PC launch announcement", "A platform page showing simultaneous PC treatment", "A Rockstar Newswire correction on platform timing" ], "related_claims": [ "sony-pushes-ps4-to-ps5-pre-gta6", "gta6-pc-release-2027" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b5c63f46b25b345149ba0f82", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/gta-6-rockstar-take-two-ps5-marketing-core-audience", "label": "Eurogamer: PS5 marketing deal and PC-not-core framing" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_38358cd4759341acb77a371e", "source": "x_synthpotato", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/SynthPotato/status/2061956923587539393", "label": "@SynthPotato cites PS6 late-2027 timing, reinforcing GTA 6 as PS5/Xbox-Series-era console-first release, weak platform-cycle context (X Sentinel Session 7)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-12T14:53:13+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-13T15:19:52.203927+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Verdict ladder migration (Day 29)" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held corroborated, confidence_score held 60. @SynthPotato social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-delay-take2-financial-risk", "digest": "361d3dac35d350a09fae7eb1a6cd4edffb42971716a54dec609bc848ad0625e1", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-delay-take2-financial-risk", "title": "GTA 6 delays pose a financial risk to Take-Two tied to $2.15B in capitalized development costs", "short": "videotech cohort signal (per-handle recall, roster-corrected) reads the Take-Two 10-K as $2.15B capitalized development costs for unreleased titles, framing GTA 6 delays as a financial risk. Single cohort citation of a 10-K figure the desk has not verified; cohort-only watching.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 38, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "The desk independently verifies the $2.15B capitalized development cost against the Take-Two 10-K on EDGAR (CIK 0000946581, already monitored)", "Tier_1 financial press (Bloomberg, Reuters, WSJ) ties GTA 6 delay risk to Take-Two's capitalized development costs", "A Take-Two earnings call or filing acknowledges delay-related financial exposure on unreleased-title development costs" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two states on the record (earnings call, filing, or official statement) that a GTA 6 delay would not materially affect its financial position", "GTA 6 ships on or before November 19, 2026, removing the further-delay premise the thesis depends on", "Independent review of the Take-Two 10-K shows the $2.15B capitalized-cost figure was misattributed or materially misquoted by the cohort source" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_588d97d356884aadb4df334b", "source": "x_videotech", "tier": "tier_2 original-source citation", "url": "https://x.com/videotech/status/2057799957936042320", "label": "videotech X cohort citation reading the Take-Two 10-K as $2.15B in capitalized development costs for unreleased titles and framing further GTA 6 delays as a financial risk (handle resolved via answer_text on an anonymized status URL)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_edgar_ttwo_10k_fy26_037434", "source": "edgar_ttwo_10k_fy26", "tier": "tier_1 primary doc", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037434/ttwo-20260331.htm", "label": "Take-Two FY2026 Form 10-K (filed 2026-05-22, period ended 2026-03-31, accession 0001628280-26-037434), Note 7 (Software Development Costs and Licenses) discloses $2,149.7 million in non-current software development costs and licenses related to titles that have not been released as of March 31, 2026. Desk-verified independently against the primary filing. The filing names GTA VI three times, each time presenting it as planned for November 19, 2026 release; the filing does not itself assert a GTA VI delay-financial-risk thesis. Recoverability/impairment policy documented but tied to expected performance, not explicitly to delay timing." } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-28T13:30:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from Slice 28U.14 reconciliation of Phase 1B Session 4 promote_to_claim_draft xsc_588d97d356884aadb4df334b. videotech (tier_2 original-source cohort, roster-corrected handle from Slice 28U.13, per-handle recall scan from:videotech, status_id age 5 days with no v2 age-discount, confidence high at producer) reads the Take-Two 10-K as $2.15B in capitalized development costs for unreleased titles and frames further GTA 6 delays as a financial risk. Handle resolved via answer_text on an anonymized status URL. First Phase 1B claim driven by a roster-corrected handle: videotech produced zero candidates across six sessions as the decayed handle videotechuk_. Single cohort citation of a 10-K figure the desk has not independently verified; no tier_1 corroboration. Cohort-only watching." }, { "at": "2026-05-29T07:40:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "EDGAR verification (Slice 28U.15, Outcome 3). Verdict held at watching (no transition), confidence_score 30 to 38, confidence_band unchanged (tier_3_unverified). The desk independently verified the $2,149.7M (rounds to $2.15B) capitalized software development cost for unreleased titles against the Take-Two FY2026 10-K Note 7 (accession 0001628280-26-037434). The fact is primary-doc-accurate; the delay-financial-risk framing is not asserted by the filing, which presents GTA VI as planned for November 19, 2026. confirm_condition #1 satisfied; kill_condition #3 retired. Score moves to reflect desk-verified fact-grounding, not thesis-corroboration." }, { "at": "2026-05-29T09:50:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Evidence provenance upgrade (Slice 28U.17, no verdict change). The seed evidence row srcobs_588d97d356884aadb4df334b is re-surfaced by Session 5 per-handle recall candidate xsc_9e371273f3a24f348ec18f2a under the resolved videotech/status URL; the source_observation and the matching evidence_chain entry URL are upgraded in place from the anonymized i/status form. This is the SAME post (status 2057799957936042320), an R1-recall provenance upgrade, not new corroboration. Verdict held at watching, confidence_score held at 38, band held at tier_3_unverified, conditions pristine." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-exclusivity-window-not-sony-paid", "digest": "7f258e853030d1f5448ce8fdfd8ecb949956362f3f05bf1fb3cf5562c35107b1", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-exclusivity-window-not-sony-paid", "title": "GTA 6 console exclusivity window is decoupled from the Sony marketing deal", "short": "Take-Two CEO Strauss Zelnick told Bloomberg the console exclusivity window on GTA 6 is not related to the Sony marketing arrangement.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 65, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Take-Two 10-K or 10-Q filing names console exclusivity as a Rockstar commercial decision and not part of the Sony marketing agreement", "A second tier 2 outlet carries Zelnick on the same record with the same decoupling framing", "Direct access to the Bloomberg article body confirms the Push Square quote excerpt verbatim" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Take-Two filing or Sony filing that names the GTA 6 console exclusivity window as a contractual term of the Sony marketing arrangement", "A subsequent Zelnick statement that walks back the decoupling framing", "90 days from publish with no tier 2 corroboration of the decoupling framing" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-console-first-by-design", "sony-pushes-ps4-to-ps5-pre-gta6" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_8f8ab666a3d983c99a539a5b", "source": "press_bloomberg", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-04/take-two-ceo-says-grand-theft-auto-vi-expectations-are-terrifying", "label": "Bloomberg (Jason Schreier) on Zelnick decoupling exclusivity from the Sony deal" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_57cfaf56fcf5f683aba05f82", "source": "press_pushsquare", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/05/playstation-seemingly-lands-gta-6-ps5-marketing-deal", "label": "Push Square as carrier path for the Bloomberg Zelnick quote" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor", "digest": "8418fa36da6664aa3f3a0f7ca5b2df861a4eb429d3323f297aa7fd946541b9ec", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor", "title": "GTA 6 anchors Take-Two Fiscal 2027 revenue guidance", "short": "Take-Two Q3 FY26 release frames Fiscal 2027 as groundbreaking, attributed to the November 19 GTA 6 launch.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 85, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "The May 21, 2026 Take-Two Q4/FY26 earnings call reaffirms GTA 6 as the central Fiscal 2027 revenue driver", "A Take-Two 10-K or 8-K filed on or after 2026-05-21 carries GTA 6 in the Fiscal 2027 outlook section" ], "kill_conditions": [ "The May 21, 2026 earnings call removes the GTA 6 anchor framing from Fiscal 2027 guidance", "A delay announcement on or before 2026-11-18 moves GTA 6 revenue out of Fiscal 2027", "90 days from publish with no Fiscal 2027 guidance reaffirmation" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21", "gta6-delay-take2-financial-risk" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6e9eb6bc37fa1f3c58b63a0e", "source": "press_pushsquare", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/02/gta-6-on-course-for-november-2026-launch-marketing-starts-in-summer", "label": "Push Square on the Take-Two Q3 FY26 Fiscal 2027 framing" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ce40feb2f997a13850428e05", "source": "take2_sec_edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026005119/ttwo-20251231.htm", "label": "Take-Two Interactive 10-Q filing for the quarter ended 2025-12-31" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_daea23ccbe1c066d06bc94bc", "source": "take2_sec_edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037260/ttwo4q26earningsrelease.htm", "label": "Take-Two 8-K filed 2026-05-21 Exhibit 99.1 anchors FY27 record performance on GTA VI launch with $8.0B-$8.2B net bookings outlook" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-15T13:30:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. SEC EDGAR scheduler captured the prior Q3 FY26 8-K and 10-Q filings as tier 1 official regulatory framing context for the Fiscal 2027 revenue anchor. The May 21 Q4 FY26 earnings call remains the primary first-party reaffirmation event. Verdict held at watching. Confidence band and confidence score unchanged." }, { "at": "2026-05-17T19:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "May 17, 2026 SEC EDGAR re-audit under the strict standard from Track A. The Q3 FY26 10-Q body (sha256 432aa73e) places the November 19, 2026 launch inside Take-Two's fiscal year 2027 — the row is retained as content-anchored tier_1 official regulatory. The Q3 FY26 8-K body (sha256 bdb60920) is silent on FY27 — proximity-only — and is removed. The Push Square row is unchanged. The chain goes from three rows to two; the surviving 10-Q is now content-anchored rather than proximity-presented. Verdict held at watching 58. Chain rigor correction, not verdict movement." }, { "at": "2026-05-22T08:45:02Z", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 21 2026 Take-Two 8-K Exhibit 99.1 satisfies both confirm_conditions: (1) Q4/FY26 earnings reaffirmation of GTA 6 as central Fiscal 2027 revenue driver via CEO quote on Nov 19 launch driving record FY27 performance; (2) 8-K filed on/after 2026-05-21 carries GTA 6 in Fiscal 2027 outlook section with $8.0B-$8.2B net bookings guidance" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "digest": "823a2c7fed00bb90f2238585075cbd01dc9447a81c8f4cb895e67c8afd4ad9ff", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "title": "GTA 6 launches November 19, 2026", "short": "Take-Two Q2 FY26 material anchors the November 19, 2026 launch date.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 88, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Rockstar Newswire post confirming the same date", "A platform first-party page (PlayStation, Xbox) confirming the date", "A rating-board entry showing the same launch window" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Take-Two correction or filing update with a different date", "A Rockstar Newswire delay announcement", "A platform store metadata page showing a different launch date" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-ai-cost-control-frame", "gta6-delay-take2-financial-risk" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ffb62575b351e6ad7166fd45", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases", "label": "Take-Two Q2 FY26 earnings release" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_2e675940580707973c0ed835", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net", "label": "Eurogamer amplification of $1bn+ dev cost" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a60e28a6838b625acfec1def", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/gta-6-pre-order-release-date-leak", "label": "Eurogamer: preorder-leak cycle lowers near-term delay risk" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ce40feb2f997a13850428e05", "source": "take2_sec_edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026005119/ttwo-20251231.htm", "label": "Take-Two Interactive 10-Q filing for the quarter ended 2025-12-31" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_daea23ccbe1c066d06bc94bc", "source": "take2_sec_edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037260/ttwo4q26earningsrelease.htm", "label": "Take-Two 8-K filed 2026-05-21 product release table reaffirms Grand Theft Auto VI launch on November 19 2026 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6cc7ba3ecf0c4aab9a1c2dfc", "source": "x_shiinabr", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/ShiinaBR/status/2057554349451104724", "label": "@ShiinaBR X recall hit: Take-Two CEO re-confirmed no further delay, cited November 19 launch (R1 Session 3 xsentinel_20260528_094833)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1ada91e8b0444d09a0766f7d", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2061950893872832657", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown relays State-of-Play cleared-calendar effect around GTA 6 late-2026 window, indirect/lower-authority (X Sentinel Session 7)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_5f142562979944bb8c997040", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2062268076821750091", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown references prior May 26 target and delay toward November 2026 window, release-date state-history continuation (X Sentinel Session 7)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6ffba1bd6b52437b80f9d9fc", "source": "x_charlieintel", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/charlieINTEL/status/2062530239662620988", "label": "@charlieINTEL reports GTA VI as only major game planned for November 2026, strong original-source cleared-window corroboration (X Sentinel Session 7)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_newswire_preorder_coverart_20260618", "source": "rockstar_newswire", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/newswire/article/517oa135328155/grand-theft-auto-vi-pre-orders-begin-on-june-25", "label": "Rockstar Newswire post of June 18, 2026 announcing GTA VI pre-orders open June 25 and revealing the cover art" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_vi_vicecity_preorder_20260618", "source": "rockstar_vi", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/VI", "label": "Official Grand Theft Auto VI page carrying the June 25 pre-order date, the cover art, and a new Vice City clip" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-12T14:23:31+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-02-04T00:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Take-Two Q3 FY26 release reaffirmed: \"highly confident as we approach Fiscal 2027 ... led by the November 19th release.\" Push Square (Sammy Barker) and Insider Gaming (Andrew Highton, quoting Tom Henderson) amplified at tier 2." }, { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 14, 2026 press cohort delay-risk framing review. Eurogamer (tier 2) frames the May preorder leak cycle as lowering near-term delay risk; the framing does not replace the Take-Two launch-date anchor. Push Square prior fiscal framing and Insider Gaming prior reaffirmation are referenced through the existing related-claim graph. Tier 1 launch date confirmation (November 19, 2026) unchanged." }, { "at": "2026-05-15T13:30:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. SEC EDGAR scheduler captured the prior Q3 FY26 8-K and 10-Q filings as tier 1 official regulatory audit-trail strengthening alongside the existing Take-Two IR launch-date anchor. Verdict held at confirmed. Confidence band and confidence score unchanged." }, { "at": "2026-05-17T19:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 17, 2026 SEC EDGAR re-audit under the strict standard from Track A. EDGAR observations carry filing metadata only; tier_1 placement requires body content speaking to the specific claim, not right-quarter proximity. The Q3 FY26 10-Q body was read once through the existing edgartools identity (body sha256 432aa73e) and contains the verbatim launch anchor; the row is retained as content-anchored tier_1 official regulatory. The Q3 FY26 8-K body (sha256 bdb60920) is silent on the launch date — proximity-only — and is removed from the chain. The take2_ir Q2 FY26 earnings release remains the chain's tier_1 official anchor and the Eurogamer rows remain unchanged. Verdict held at confirmed 88. Chain rigor correction, not verdict movement." }, { "at": "2026-05-22T08:45:02Z", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 21 2026 Take-Two 8-K product release table reaffirms GTA VI launch on November 19, 2026 for PS5 and Xbox Series X|S. Evidence chain reinforced with tier-1 regulatory confirmation." }, { "at": "2026-05-28T13:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Tier_3 community recall corroboration via R1 Session 3. Verdict held confirmed, confidence_score held 88. Audit-trail completeness; does not change the verdict." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held confirmed, confidence_score held 88. @GTAVI_Countdown social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held confirmed, confidence_score held 88. @GTAVI_Countdown social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held confirmed, confidence_score held 88. @charlieINTEL social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-19T13:15:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Preorder-announcement adjudication, 2026-06-19. The June 18, 2026 first-party pre-order announcement reaffirms the November 19, 2026 launch on the official GTA VI page and the Rockstar Newswire post. The announcement is attached as corroborating first-party evidence. Verdict holds at confirmed, confidence 88." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-marketing-window-compressed", "digest": "8bd1c77d0a785002b8b8f6b8f9b34a158f668cb3780788b82e6d23e42af7da97", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-marketing-window-compressed", "title": "Rockstar runs a compressed marketing window for GTA 6", "short": "GTABoom argues the GTA 6 campaign will be shorter and denser than any prior Rockstar launch. The register's own instruments lean the same way: the Newswire silence counter is past two hundred days and the May trailer window died on its clock.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 40, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "The first sustained marketing beat lands inside 90 days of November 19, 2026", "Major press documents the campaign length against prior Rockstar launches once it runs" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A sustained multi-beat campaign begins before August 21, 2026", "GTA 6 moves off November 19 and the window math resets" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-summer-marketing-beat", "gta6-trailer-3-may-window", "gta6-rockstar-youtube-trailer3-silence-2026-05" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f0cebca341227c99bf8270b4", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/why-gta-6-marketing-will-be-the-shortest-and-most-intense-ever-3835", "label": "GTABoom on a shortest-and-densest marketing window thesis for GTA 6" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: amplification-carried compression thesis that the desk's silence instruments already lean toward. Watching until a campaign exists to measure." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-may-12-preorder-cohort-prediction", "digest": "30e7abf9dc537ee67994d30c7ef4bb95d6fd1c0a01390d5352370ac625506c6d", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-may-12-preorder-cohort-prediction", "title": "GTA 6 pre-orders open on May 12, 2026", "short": "The cohort predicted May 12 pre-orders at £69.99; that day elapsed without a Rockstar announcement. The May 18 to 21 Best Buy email window is a separate related claim, not a rescue condition for this May-12 prediction.", "current_verdict": "killed", "confidence_score": 0, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Rockstar Newswire post on or before 2026-05-12 opens GTA 6 pre-orders at any price point", "A Take-Two communication on or before 2026-05-12 confirms a pre-order open date of May 12, 2026" ], "kill_conditions": [ "2026-05-12T23:59:59Z passes with no Rockstar Newswire pre-order announcement on GTA 6", "A Take-Two communication that explicitly defers GTA 6 pre-orders past May 12, 2026" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-summer-marketing-beat", "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b6df03c1cf5fe204abd4707c", "source": "reddit_gamingleaksandrumours", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://reddit.com/r/GamingLeaksAndRumours/comments/1t8w811", "label": "r/GamingLeaksAndRumours reveal compilation thread (May 12 prediction)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_4a73e1c08b5d2e9f6c4a8b15", "source": "rockstar_newswire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/newswire", "label": "Rockstar Newswire feed: no GTA 6 pre-order post in the May-12 window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-18T09:00:00+00:00", "to": "killed", "note": "The 2026-05-12T23:59:59Z kill condition fired: no Rockstar Newswire pre-order announcement on GTA 6 was published on or before May 12. Operator review on 2026-05-18 confirms no pre-orders opened during the May-12 window. The May 18 to 21 Best Buy email window is tracked as a separate related claim (gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim); a later cohort signal predicting a different window is not evidence the May-12 prediction was correct, so May 18 does not retroactively rescue May 12. Confidence band held at tier_3_unverified because the register's band vocabulary has no killed-specific value; the band reflects the claim's source tier (a tier_3 community cohort prediction), not its verification status, which is killed/verified-false. Band-vocabulary gap registered as a known semantic imprecision." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-november-counter-programming-cluster", "digest": "2c38664d09a6f6404828fb3f4871cbcf1a297463fe2de714aa8b43ab82995861", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-november-counter-programming-cluster", "title": "A counter-programming cluster dates titles inside GTA 6's November window", "short": "Three carriers document titles dating into November 2026 rather than vacating it: a studio declaring November 5 to PC Gamer, a reported Godzilla remaster on November 3, and Barbie Rewind on November 12. The cluster is the counterweight to the September compression thesis.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 64, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Three or more titles hold officially confirmed November 2026 dates at the end of September 2026", "A publisher states on the record that releasing inside the GTA 6 window is a deliberate strategy" ], "kill_conditions": [ "The dated November titles slip out of the month, restoring the cleared-window pattern", "GTA 6 moves off November 19 and the cluster framing loses its anchor" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-september-release-compression-2026", "gta6-barbie-rewind-november-12-counter-release", "mw4-october-date-before-gta6", "remedy-control-resonant-gta6-window-tide-lift" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_dcf302d0e8db0179a34ff5b9", "source": "pcgamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/action/studio-says-not-every-publisher-is-swerving-gta-6s-release-and-declares-a-november-5-release-date-for-its-game-maybe-were-just-not-afraid-enough/", "label": "PC Gamer carries a studio declaring November 5 and saying 'not every publisher' is swerving GTA 6" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_67a1749f26cfec7ccf722685", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/godzilla-is-apparently-not-afraid-of-gta-6/", "label": "GameSpot relays a Dealabs report dating a Godzilla: Destroy All Monsters Melee remaster to November 3" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b311064a37e8bd6b87bc1023", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-gets-its-barbenheimer-as-barbie-compilation-sets-a-november-release/", "label": "GameSpot on Barbie Rewind dating November 12, one week before GTA 6" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: PC Gamer and two GameSpot rows document a counter-programming cluster dating titles into November 2026. One date is a relayed Dealabs report and is labeled as such on the chain." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-pc-release-2027", "digest": "7720d3e2fc922e0e5d310c2839fa3967a442c3f0f983c95ca7c4ea88461b6666", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-pc-release-2027", "title": "GTA VI PC release likely 2027, not launch-day November 2026", "short": "GTAVI_Countdown cohort signal reports PC will not launch alongside the November 2026 console release and likely follows in 2027. No first-party Rockstar or Take-Two confirmation; cohort-only watching.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 35, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire or Take-Two earnings names a PC release date in 2027", "Take-Two earnings explicitly states PC follows console with a stated lag", "First-party Rockstar storefront PC SKU surfaces with a 2027 release window" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire post confirming PC release on or before November 19, 2026", "Take-Two earnings disclosure naming PC launch parity with consoles", "First-party Rockstar storefront listing showing PC SKU with November 2026 ship date", "Tier_1 press (IGN, Eurogamer, Bloomberg) with on-the-record Rockstar or Take-Two PC launch-day comment" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-console-first-by-design" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_448144c7b79e466a992ce3b3", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2042437577232326811", "label": "GTAVI_Countdown X cohort citation noting PC release likely 2027, not launch-day November 2026" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6b1d4132e5174fc1adfe7763", "source": "x_videotech", "tier": "tier_2 original-source citation", "url": "https://x.com/videotech/status/2051454602248180103", "label": "@videotech X cohort citation (Session 5 per-handle recall): original-source rationale for why Rockstar likely avoids a day-one PC release (anti-modding, datamining prevention, optimization windows); PS5 expected to dominate even with a simultaneous PC release." }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3fe2768ddb2b4845ba2cd78d", "source": "x_videotech", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/videotech/status/2061832679901810882", "label": "@videotech PC-port-challenge discussion expects PS5/Xbox first with PC later, consistent with PC-not-launch-day thesis (X Sentinel Session 7)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_61b5c42af820c17f31a5271f", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/the-may-21-earnings-call-actually-had-bad-news-for-gta-6-on-pc-5fe0", "label": "GTABoom earnings-call PC lag corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b75547cdf09b178d2c79ec98", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-on-pc-delay-looks-smarter-than-ever-after-massive-forza-horion-6-leak-8533", "label": "GTABoom PC-lag framing corroboration post Forza Horizon leak" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-27T13:29:19.055742+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from Slice 28U.9 reconciliation of Phase 1B Session 1 promote_to_claim_draft xsc_448144c7b79e466a992ce3b3. GTAVI_Countdown (tier_2 cohort, 47-day status_id age, v2 age-discount applied to confidence=low at producer) reports PC release likely 2027 rather than alongside November 19, 2026 console launch. No first-party Rockstar or Take-Two confirmation; cohort-only watching." }, { "at": "2026-05-29T09:50:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Evidence attach (Slice 28U.17). @videotech X cohort citation (Session 5 per-handle recall): original-source rationale for why Rockstar likely avoids a day-one PC release (anti-modding, datamining prevention, optimization windows); PS5 expected to dominate even with a simultaneous PC release. confidence_score 30 to 35; verdict held at watching, band held at tier_3_unverified, conditions pristine. Source: Session 5 videotech net-new candidate xsc_6b1d4132e5174fc1adfe7763." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held watching, confidence_score held 35. @videotech social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct earnings-call/PC-lag corroborator; no verdict change" }, { "at": "2026-06-10T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.8 attached 1 GTABoom tier_2 amplification corroboration (PC delay framing after Forza Horizon leak). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held at watching/35/tier_3_unverified; evidence breadth only." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-platform-holder-preload-day1-silence-2026-05", "digest": "f7f645c7b4a55855bd77f061655910125cae75f74f65235c3b990c09da079f7e", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-platform-holder-preload-day1-silence-2026-05", "title": "PlayStation Blog and Xbox Wire have not published GTA 6 preload or day-1 patch guidance in current feed windows", "short": "PlayStation Blog and Xbox Wire feeds show no GTA 6 preload size, day-1 patch, or launch-logistics guidance in current windows as of May 15. Tier 1 platform-holder silence on launch readiness mechanics, distinct from preorder post absence. Logistics commentary outstanding.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 93, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Already met: manual feed review on 2026-05-15 carries the empirical absence on both feeds", "A second manual feed review inside the same window reproduces the absence on both feeds" ], "kill_conditions": [ "PlayStation Blog publishes GTA 6 preload guidance or day-1 patch guidance in its current feed window", "Xbox Wire publishes GTA 6 preload guidance or day-1 patch guidance in its current feed window" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05", "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_8aefc4e693a400b7a7757b67", "source": "playstation_blog", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://blog.playstation.com/feed/", "label": "PlayStation Blog RSS feed: no GTA 6 preload or day-1 patch guidance in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_e16ee55b2f7e5676435e1040", "source": "xbox_wire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/feed/", "label": "Xbox Wire RSS feed: no GTA 6 preload or day-1 patch guidance in current window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T06:22:38+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05", "digest": "4fcd4738424bc94ec0329a94e72b187d44b4d9ec7b92bb8972365e47ae7cd4ed", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05", "title": "PlayStation Blog and Xbox Wire have not published GTA 6 preorder posts in current feed windows", "short": "Manual review of the PlayStation Blog and Xbox Wire RSS feeds on May 14, 2026 found no GTA 6 preorder posts. Tier 1 platform-holder absence runs parallel to the Best Buy affiliate retailer leak. First-party preorder confirmation is outstanding.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 93, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Already met: manual feed review on 2026-05-14 carries the empirical absence on both feeds", "A second manual feed review inside the same window reproduces the absence on both feeds" ], "kill_conditions": [ "PlayStation Blog publishes a GTA 6 preorder or platform-holder launch post in its current feed window", "Xbox Wire publishes a GTA 6 preorder or platform-holder launch post in its current feed window" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-may-12-preorder-cohort-prediction" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_22356b5d1fc2100b66fd587d", "source": "playstation_blog", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://blog.playstation.com/feed/", "label": "PlayStation Blog RSS feed: no GTA 6 preorder in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f6b7c7f2364e357902604447", "source": "xbox_wire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/feed/", "label": "Xbox Wire RSS feed: no GTA 6 preorder in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_651f1261b32e4ed48a7106fc", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2061882243547635796", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown reports continued preorder silence + Kalshi 50% odds, platform-holder preorder-silence angle (X Sentinel Session 7)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_15399b4c8cdb860e6cae2dca", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/those-gta-6-preorder-rumors-appear-to-be-another-false-alarm/1100-6540008/?ftag=CAD-01-10abi2f", "label": "GameSpot preorder false-alarm context" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f0fa480a947e10e475f092a4", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-owners-stock-price-surges-after-news-that-preorders-may-start-soon/1100-6539957/?ftag=CAD-01-10abi2f", "label": "GameSpot preorder-rumor stock-cycle context" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ffdee957a445e9bb4638786b", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/when-gta-6-pre-orders-will-actually-open-post-earnings-update-00cd", "label": "GTABoom post-earnings preorder timing corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6da343bf5785d4332b5d5434", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/the-gta-6-pre-order-date-that-moved-billions-was-apparently-wrong-0070", "label": "GTABoom preorder-date correction corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held confirmed, confidence_score held 93. @GTAVI_Countdown social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; false-alarm preorder context" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; preorder-rumor/stock-cycle context" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct post-earnings preorder timing corroborator" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct preorder-date correction row" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-preorder-malware-scam-cycle-visible", "digest": "0ba13b000913a7019698f5cff13c8a92ba537d5e529509112e9688730e59bcd3", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-preorder-malware-scam-cycle-visible", "title": "GTA 6 preorder hype drives a visible malware and phishing scam cycle", "short": "Insider Gaming reported that GTA 6 preorder concerns have driven a surge in malware and phishing scams. The desk treats it as tier 2 reporting of a fraud cycle around preorder hype. No first-party security advisory is attached.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 45, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A security vendor publishes a named advisory on GTA 6 preorder scam activity", "A second tier 2 outlet reports the same GTA 6 preorder fraud cycle" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Insider Gaming retracts the GTA 6 preorder malware report", "A security vendor finds no measurable GTA 6 preorder scam activity in the period" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-vi-page-preorder-code-readiness-signal" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_aac3f799aadbec573601defa", "source": "insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://insider-gaming.com/gta-6-pre-order-hype-malware-concern/", "label": "Insider Gaming on the GTA 6 preorder malware and phishing surge" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: Insider Gaming reports a malware and phishing surge around GTA 6 preorder hype." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-preorders-open-june-25-2026", "digest": "faf94f38e71661f69d1ea833933af067b246b40b09aae43fd0f6a09c7e7d2472", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-preorders-open-june-25-2026", "title": "GTA 6 pre-orders open June 25, 2026", "short": "Rockstar announced June 18, 2026 that GTA VI pre-orders open June 25 on digital storefronts. The announcement revealed the official cover art and reaffirmed the November 19, 2026 launch. First-party, on Rockstar Newswire and the official GTA VI page.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 92, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI go live on June 25, 2026 on the PlayStation and Xbox digital storefronts as announced.", "A first-party storefront listing for GTA VI pre-orders is observable inside the June 25, 2026 window." ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar or Take-Two posts a first-party statement delaying or withdrawing the June 25, 2026 pre-order date.", "The June 25, 2026 date passes with no GTA VI pre-order available on any first-party storefront." ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05", "gta6-vi-page-preorder-code-readiness-signal", "gta6-summer-marketing-beat" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_newswire_preorder_coverart_20260618", "source": "rockstar_newswire", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/newswire/article/517oa135328155/grand-theft-auto-vi-pre-orders-begin-on-june-25", "label": "Rockstar Newswire post of June 18, 2026 announcing GTA VI pre-orders open June 25 and revealing the cover art" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_vi_vicecity_preorder_20260618", "source": "rockstar_vi", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/VI", "label": "Official Grand Theft Auto VI page carrying the June 25 pre-order date, the cover art, and a new Vice City clip with November 19, 2026 reaffirmed" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_press_opencritic_vicecity_20260618", "source": "press_opencritic", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://opencritic.com/news/33231/rockstar-just-quietly-revealed-our-best-look-at-vice-city-in-gta-6-yet", "label": "OpenCritic reports the official new Vice City clip on the GTA 6 website" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_press_gamesradar_coverart_20260618", "source": "press_gamesradar", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamesradar.com/games/grand-theft-auto/gta-6-cover-art-reveal/", "label": "GamesRadar reports pre-orders open June 25 and the cover art reveal" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_press_kotaku_vicecity_20260618", "source": "press_kotaku", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://kotaku.com/holy-crap-vice-city-looks-amazing-in-this-new-gta-6-clip-2000708110", "label": "Kotaku reports the new official GTA 6 Vice City clip" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_press_gamingbible_preorder_20260618", "source": "press_gamingbible", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamingbible.com/news/gta-6-pre-orders-june-rockstar-games-cover-art-402589-20260618", "label": "GamingBible reports pre-orders confirmed for June 25 with the cover art reveal" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_press_brobible_coverart_20260618", "source": "press_brobible", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://brobible.com/culture/article/grand-theft-auto-6-vice-city-video-cover-art/", "label": "BroBible reports the Vice City video and cover art with the June 25 pre-order date" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1bf342561d79dfcb81898ec7", "source": "reddit_gta6", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/GTA6/comments/1u96al0/not_only_are_we_one_week_from_preorders_we_are/", "label": "r/GTA6 community thread on the one-week-out pre-order announcement" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6c04186f66a56c2dfcb41322", "source": "reddit_gta6", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/GTA6/comments/1u9a86u/rockstar_updated_the_gta_vi_logo/", "label": "r/GTA6 community thread on the updated GTA VI logo and cover art" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-19T13:05:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Seeded on the June 18, 2026 first-party announcement that GTA VI pre-orders open June 25 on digital storefronts, with the official cover art revealed and the November 19, 2026 launch reaffirmed. Anchored to the Rockstar Newswire post and the official GTA VI page, corroborated by tier 2 press carries (OpenCritic, GamesRadar, Kotaku, GamingBible, BroBible) and two tier 3 community threads." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-press-cycle-pricing-pressure-discrimination", "digest": "2c175585b6725adc4e5cad5a2abf2b4c616cd38f11589c862a132b9c0c569887", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-press-cycle-pricing-pressure-discrimination", "title": "The May 2026 press cycle separates consumer-price pressure signals from Rockstar pricing confirmation evidence", "short": "GTABoom polling and VGC analyst coverage carry consumer-pricing pressure during the May preorder cycle. The desk treats them as press pressure signals. It does not record a Take-Two pricing commitment. Tier 1 confirmation absent across IR, Newswire, and platform feeds.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 25, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire publishes GTA 6 base pricing that maps to the press cycle pressure framing", "A second cohort of tier 2 carriers reports a Take-Two pricing decision derived from the polling and analyst pressure" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire opens GTA 6 preorders with a confirmed base price that resolves the pricing pressure cycle", "Tier 2 press coverage of pricing pressure dissipates without first-party confirmation inside the May cycle", "90 days from publish with no first-party engagement on the pricing pressure framing" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-price-willingness-polling-may-2026", "gta6-uk-retailer-pricing-unconfirmed", "gta6-analyst-80-pricing-pressure-2026-05" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3ffda68ffb299143a677f1e4", "source": "press_gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/nearly-half-of-gamers-would-pay-this-much-for-gta-6-de0d", "label": "GTABoom: consumer-willingness polling as pricing pressure signal" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3391e9560337949a6e9accc6", "source": "press_vgc", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/best-buy-tells-affiliates-its-starting-gta-6-pre-orders-next-week-sparking-speculation-that-a-new-trailer-is-coming/", "label": "VGC: Bank of America analyst commentary as pricing pressure signal" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_27b669ddf47f5395a6ec41bf", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases", "label": "Take-Two IR RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing confirmation in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_22356b5d1fc2100b66fd587d", "source": "playstation_blog", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://blog.playstation.com/feed/", "label": "PlayStation Blog RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing confirmation in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f6b7c7f2364e357902604447", "source": "xbox_wire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/feed/", "label": "Xbox Wire RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing confirmation in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1da44d6e40e30b4849e1a62d", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/take-two-ceo-just-confirmed-how-much-gta-6-will-cost-without-saying-a-number-54af", "label": "GTABoom Zelnick pricing-pressure corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ee5b1724836bd681d784a0e8", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/bank-of-america-warns-gta-6-higher-price-tag-3a39", "label": "GTABoom $80 pricing-pressure corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_06dc917c68fcbcd31dfec9d5", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/take-two-knows-higher-prices-work-gta-6-is-next-4084", "label": "GTABoom NBA 2K26 pricing-precedent corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_d4b3f604d6a159320b43c305", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-price-appears-on-playstation-store-and-it-makes-no-sense-dc72", "label": "GTABoom PS Store price-surface corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_12e9198eda6906dc180477a8", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/piper-sandler-bets-10-billion-in-projected-value-on-gta-6-e46d", "label": "GTABoom Piper Sandler corporate-value-side pricing corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T07:15:22+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct pricing-pressure row; no verdict change" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct $80 pricing-pressure row" }, { "at": "2026-06-10T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.8 attached 3 GTABoom tier_2 amplification corroborations (NBA 2K26 pricing precedent, PS Store price surface, Piper Sandler value framing). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held at watching/25/tier_3_unverified; evidence breadth only." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-price-willingness-polling-may-2026", "digest": "4a4ff97c520720085f0707e3aacce24acf16246b00fec109113aaf8570ceb9c0", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-price-willingness-polling-may-2026", "title": "GTA 6 price-willingness polling is visible in the May 2026 preorder cycle while first-party pricing remains absent", "short": "GTABoom carried polling on consumer willingness toward higher GTA 6 pricing. The desk treats it as tier 2 amplification of demand-side polling in the May cycle. It does not record a Take-Two pricing commitment. Tier 1 confirmation absent across IR, Newswire, and platform feeds.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 30, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire confirms GTA 6 base pricing inside the polled willingness range", "PlayStation Blog or Xbox Wire publishes regional pricing that resolves to a tier matching the polling band", "A second independent consumer-survey carrier corroborates the GTABoom polling result" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire confirms a GTA 6 base price that follows or contradicts the polling band", "Polling support for higher pricing fades from press coverage without a corresponding pricing decision", "90 days from publish with no first-party pricing confirmation referencing the consumer-willingness data" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-uk-retailer-pricing-unconfirmed", "gta6-analyst-80-pricing-pressure-2026-05", "gta6-press-cycle-pricing-pressure-discrimination" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3ffda68ffb299143a677f1e4", "source": "press_gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/nearly-half-of-gamers-would-pay-this-much-for-gta-6-de0d", "label": "GTABoom: nearly half of gamers report willingness to pay $100 for GTA 6" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_27b669ddf47f5395a6ec41bf", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases", "label": "Take-Two IR RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing post in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_22356b5d1fc2100b66fd587d", "source": "playstation_blog", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://blog.playstation.com/feed/", "label": "PlayStation Blog RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing post in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f6b7c7f2364e357902604447", "source": "xbox_wire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/feed/", "label": "Xbox Wire RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing post in current window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T07:15:22+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-project-rome-modding-server-platform", "digest": "6b5602c79b541bcf46c782b47e669cf4139b3bf0480f1858cf27354d19432f71", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-project-rome-modding-server-platform", "title": "Project ROME is Rockstar's GTA 6 first-party modding and private-server platform", "short": "Insiders including Tez2 and tier 2 press including Vice report Project ROME, a rumored Rockstar Online Modding Engine built into GTA VI to replace FiveM and let players run servers and custom experiences. Rockstar has not confirmed it on any first-party channel.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 40, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar or Cfx.re confirms Project ROME, or an equivalently named first-party GTA 6 modding and server platform, on an official channel.", "A Take-Two regulatory filing or earnings statement references a GTA 6 user-run server or first-party modding platform." ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar or Cfx.re explicitly denies Project ROME or a first-party GTA 6 private-server platform.", "GTA 6 launches on November 19, 2026 with no first-party modding or private-server platform present." ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-rockstar-gta-online-support-pre-launch", "gta-online-million-dollar-daily-revenue" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_tez2_project_rome_20260619", "source": "x_tezfunz2", "tier": "tier_2 insider", "url": "https://x.com/TezFunz2", "label": "Tez2 reports Project ROME (Rockstar Online Modding Engine), a first-party GTA VI server platform predating the 2023 Cfx.re acquisition" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_press_vice_project_rome_20260619", "source": "press_vice", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.vice.com/en/article/new-gta-6-modding-feature-leaked-and-it-sounds-like-roblox/", "label": "Vice reports a leaked first-party GTA 6 modding feature resembling Roblox, tied to the Project ROME rumor" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_gtavi_countdown_project_rome_20260619", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/1893416173947043923", "label": "GTAVI_Countdown relays former-FiveM-staff claims that Project ROME replaces FiveM in GTA VI as a player-creation platform" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_vertexmods_project_rome_20260619", "source": "vertexmods", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://vertexmods.com/blog/project-rome-gta6-fivem-future", "label": "VertexMods explainer framing Project ROME as Rockstar's first-party FiveM successor for GTA 6" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-19T15:55:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Seeded under the narrow scope expansion to Rockstar platform-reality (operator decision 2026-06-19). Tracks Project ROME, the rumored Rockstar Online Modding Engine reported by insiders including Tez2 and tier 2 press including Vice as a first-party GTA 6 modding and private-server platform replacing FiveM. Watching at tier 3 unverified because no first-party confirmation has surfaced. Streamer intent such as the Adin Ross server plan is excluded per the scope-discipline invariants; this claim adjudicates platform reality only." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-rockstar-gta-online-support-pre-launch", "digest": "fc41aeb56d388be41920cf79287758e0d401c9a529680f09e0fa351d2de10e9e", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-rockstar-gta-online-support-pre-launch", "title": "Rockstar continued GTA Online live-ops support through official YouTube posts during the GTA 6 pre-launch window", "short": "Rockstar Games YouTube feed carries an April 16, 2026 GTA Online event entry. Tier 1 publication evidence that live-ops capacity remained active during the GTA 6 pre-launch window. Context for Rockstar production posture, not a GTA 6 feature claim.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 92, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Already met: April 16, 2026 GTA Online event post carries the live-ops anchor", "A second Rockstar YouTube GTA Online event entry inside the pre-launch window reinforces the cadence" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar Games YouTube stops posting GTA Online support content for a 30-day or longer continuous window before GTA 6 launch", "Rockstar Newswire announces an end to GTA Online live-ops support inside the pre-launch window" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_305ecfc389734279bad495a1", "source": "rockstar_youtube", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxfMjFuJD7s", "label": "Rockstar Games YouTube: LD Organics Presents: The 420 Event in GTA Online" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-rockstar-youtube-trailer3-silence-2026-05", "digest": "e8c349fe5d1a22ac291012dc0dc573b9b05a2642c03a903ba53df83da512064e", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-rockstar-youtube-trailer3-silence-2026-05", "title": "Rockstar Games YouTube channel has not posted a GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset in the current feed window", "short": "Manual review of the Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed on May 14, 2026 found recent GTA Online entries and no GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset. Tier 1 empirical absence. The official channel remains the anchor for any trailer-drop confirmation.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 95, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Already met: manual feed review on 2026-05-14 carries the empirical absence", "A second manual feed review inside the same window reproduces the absence" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar Games YouTube publishes a GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset (the claim then resolves as a positive observation, not as a kill)", "The Rockstar Games YouTube channel is deprecated as an official surface in favor of another first-party channel" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-trailer-3-may-window" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_0e4ec5afaa6923037c713147", "source": "rockstar_youtube", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/feeds/videos.xml?user=RockstarGames", "label": "Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed: no GTA 6 Trailer 3 in current window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-september-release-compression-2026", "digest": "2dd219c50fe39eaed6701e58adef30bb22bf4be1da2707f52fc66aa028999fb0", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-september-release-compression-2026", "title": "GTA 6 pushes more 2026 games into the September release window", "short": "Eurogamer and PC Gamer both describe publishers moving major releases into September rather than confronting GTA 6 in November. GTABoom and X Sentinel corroborators add lower-tier breadth around the same calendar-clearing pattern.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 66, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Three or more confirmed September 2026 release dates from titles whose studios or publishers cite GTA 6 timing", "A publisher earnings call or investor filing references GTA 6 as a factor in release-window scheduling" ], "kill_conditions": [ "GTA 6 slips out of November 2026 and publishers revert September titles back to Q4", "September 2026 release count falls below the prior-year September baseline by a material margin" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "mw4-october-date-before-gta6", "gta6-summer-marketing-beat", "fable-2027-delay-gta6-scheduling-pressure" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_335c8ae4fc4112776f7118a5", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/gta-6-release-date-black-hole", "label": "Eurogamer on GTA 6 pushing release-calendar pressure into September" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_fe394f65349ab0c09446543b", "source": "pcgamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/horror/silent-hill-townfall-will-release-in-september-alongside-a-handful-of-other-blockbuster-games-hellbent-on-avoiding-gta-6/", "label": "PC Gamer on Silent Hill Townfall and other releases avoiding GTA 6" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_979bbefe62e1f91c591b18c6", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-might-have-scared-every-major-game-into-releasing-in-september-4119", "label": "GTABoom on a September release-calendar compression pattern around GTA 6" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1ada91e8b0444d09a0766f7d", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2061950893872832657", "label": "GTAVI_Countdown relays the State-of-Play cleared-calendar effect around the GTA 6 late-2026 window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6e3f214b73cd4208a7200bc4", "source": "x_synthpotato", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/SynthPotato/status/2062091359100534846", "label": "SynthPotato notes Phantom Blade Zero dating Oct 29 between GTA 6 and MW4, slotting around the window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_c93147afc5ce4e22614f527c", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/tomb-raider-legacy-of-atlantis-gets-out-of-the-way-of-gta-6-with-apparent-delay-to-2027/", "label": "GameSpot Tomb Raider delay-away corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_347c530c082082452f5b5f97", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/ex-rockstar-developer-warns-industry-about-avoiding-gta-6-5858", "label": "GTABoom industry avoidance corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_dcf302d0e8db0179a34ff5b9", "source": "rss_atom_feed:pcgamer_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/action/studio-says-not-every-publisher-is-swerving-gta-6s-release-and-declares-a-november-5-release-date-for-its-game-maybe-were-just-not-afraid-enough/", "label": "PC Gamer counter-signal: studio declares November 5 date, says not every publisher is swerving GTA 6's release window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-06T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: Eurogamer and PC Gamer document September calendar compression around GTA 6. GTABoom adds breadth." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; direct Tomb Raider delay-away signal" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct avoidance/compression corroborator" }, { "at": "2026-06-10T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.8 attached 1 tier_2 major_press counter-signal (PC Gamer: studio declares November 5, 'not every publisher' swerving). Counter-programming cluster also includes srcobs_b311064a37e8bd6b87bc1023, srcobs_67a1749f26cfec7ccf722685, srcobs_30ff110dbe29c1a06bb62dd3, srcobs_4d2df23a84f76cd7cbb2ea86 (documented, not chain-attached). Cluster qualifies thesis scope; verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held at corroborated/66/confirmed_major_press per Day 57 ratification." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-soundtrack-ski-mask-xxxtentacion", "digest": "de99ad81313ca9321cc252b445bd3e2f0be45ef8fc08b098aea17be7defd61b5", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-soundtrack-ski-mask-xxxtentacion", "title": "Ski Mask the Slump God and XXXTentacion appear on the GTA 6 soundtrack", "short": "GTABoom relays Ski Mask the Slump God saying he and XXXTentacion are on the GTA 6 soundtrack. An artist self-claim with no first-party tracklist behind it. First soundtrack row on the register; Rockstar has published nothing about music licensing.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 32, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar or Take-Two publishes a tracklist, credits, or trailer audio naming either artist", "A second independent source with label or estate access corroborates the licensing" ], "kill_conditions": [ "An official tracklist or credits sheet publishes without either artist", "The artist or the XXXTentacion estate walks the statement back" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-rockstar-youtube-trailer3-silence-2026-05" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_510046b01deb6945e0a67c17", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/a-florida-rapper-just-revealed-he-is-on-the-gta-6-soundtrack-ec85", "label": "GTABoom relays the Ski Mask the Slump God soundtrack self-claim naming himself and XXXTentacion" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: artist self-claim relayed by GTABoom. Watching at low confidence until first-party music material exists to check it against." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-state-of-play-2026-06-absent", "digest": "6492fe95094065b812f61f493120da78d70ec07ceae06cffc2a6d49d5a7dfee8", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-state-of-play-2026-06-absent", "title": "GTA 6 trailer was absent from June 2026 PlayStation State of Play", "short": "PlayStation's June 2026 State of Play passed without a GTA 6 trailer, gameplay segment, release-date update, or Rockstar slot. charlieINTEL recorded the absence inside the Session 7 cohort window, making it a datable platform-showcase silence signal.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 55, "confidence_band": "platform_holder_partial", "confirm_conditions": [ "Official PlayStation State of Play recap or VOD is attached and contains no GTA 6 / GTA VI / Rockstar entry.", "A second tier_2 outlet or cohort source independently records that GTA 6 was absent from the June 2026 State of Play.", "PlayStation's trailer/index page for the event remains unchanged after the post-show recap window." ], "kill_conditions": [ "PlayStation, Rockstar, or Take-Two publishes a correction showing GTA 6 content was included in the June 2026 State of Play.", "An official PlayStation recap, VOD, or trailer index is updated to include GTA 6 content from the June 2026 State of Play.", "charlieINTEL deletes or corrects the status and no official PlayStation event record supports the absence.", "A later Sony showcase carries GTA 6 content, retiring this claim as a historical checkpoint rather than an active silence signal.", "Rockstar or Take-Two publishes a trailer or marketing update that supersedes the June State of Play absence as the current trailer-cadence signal." ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-rockstar-youtube-trailer3-silence-2026-05", "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-summer-marketing-beat", "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_99808823a94a45f1aad4d024", "source": "x_charlieintel", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/charlieINTEL/status/2062531201844285712", "label": "charlieINTEL records no GTA 6 content at June 2026 PlayStation State of Play" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-06T07:45:02.089218+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial claim creation from Slice 28V.3 promotion of Session 7 candidate xsc_99808823a94a45f1aad4d024. charlieINTEL recorded that PlayStation's June 2026 State of Play carried no GTA 6 content. This is a Sony showcase-event silence signal, distinct from Rockstar Newswire silence, Take-Two IR silence, and platform preorder silence." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-summer-marketing-beat", "digest": "57f379970bac4ab105a85fa25c0210a11c86ea520fac7d72eeff3c7cb3367973", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-summer-marketing-beat", "title": "Rockstar GTA 6 launch marketing campaign begins in summer 2026", "short": "Take-Two Q3 FY26 release names summer 2026 as the start of Rockstar's launch marketing campaign for GTA 6.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 88, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Rockstar Newswire post between 2026-06-01 and 2026-08-31 opens the GTA 6 launch marketing campaign with a named asset", "The May 21, 2026 Q4 FY26 earnings call reaffirms the summer marketing window inside its prepared remarks or transcript" ], "kill_conditions": [ "The September 1, 2026 date passes with no Rockstar Newswire marketing post on GTA 6 in the prior three months", "A Take-Two filing or earnings transcript moves the marketing window outside summer 2026", "90 days from publish with no on-topic Newswire post" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-wc2026-marketing-campaign", "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6e9eb6bc37fa1f3c58b63a0e", "source": "press_pushsquare", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/02/gta-6-on-course-for-november-2026-launch-marketing-starts-in-summer", "label": "Push Square on the Take-Two summer marketing window framing" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_fe5e9552d26f4ccba9cfc324", "source": "x_charlieintel", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/charlieINTEL/status/2057571232107671914", "label": "charlieINTEL X cohort summary of Take-Two Q4 FY26 earnings call: significant GTA VI marketing campaign" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b32c700591504b6eb6c93380", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2060716719979593754", "label": "@GTAVI_Countdown relays Zelnick: more GTA 6 details this summer, official preorders not yet live (X Sentinel Session 6)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_67812dc6ab2df1c90e70fbdb", "source": "rss_atom_feed:eurogamer_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/gta-6-release-date-reaffirmed", "label": "Eurogamer summer marketing corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_61a704d4b2fa13ebdf612923", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-still-needs-big-marketing-push-despite-unprecedented-hype-take-two-boss-says/", "label": "GameSpot marketing-push corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3336d01b5c39dff4dd775f46", "source": "rss_atom_feed:pushsquare_news_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pushsquare.com/news/2026/05/gta-6-still-set-for-november-release-but-marketing-isnt-imminent", "label": "PushSquare marketing-timing corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_8c0d7b1fa4f309941a6f8a41", "source": "rss_atom_feed:insider_gaming_feed", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://insider-gaming.com/gta-6-marketing-trailer/", "label": "Insider Gaming marketing-plan corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f0cebca341227c99bf8270b4", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/why-gta-6-marketing-will-be-the-shortest-and-most-intense-ever-3835", "label": "GTABoom short intense marketing corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_vi_vicecity_preorder_20260618", "source": "rockstar_vi", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/VI", "label": "Official Grand Theft Auto VI page carrying the June 25 pre-order date, the cover art, and a new Vice City clip" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_newswire_preorder_coverart_20260618", "source": "rockstar_newswire", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/newswire/article/517oa135328155/grand-theft-auto-vi-pre-orders-begin-on-june-25", "label": "Rockstar Newswire post of June 18, 2026 announcing GTA VI pre-orders open June 25 and revealing the cover art" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-25T10:30:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "charlieINTEL Q4 FY26 earnings call summary corroborates the marketing campaign framing on gta6-summer-marketing-beat. Adds a second tier_2 amplification source whose temporal position is post-event (Q4 FY26 earnings call) versus the existing pre-event Push Square Q3 FY26 framing. Verdict moves watching to corroborated; confidence_band stays confirmed_major_press." }, { "at": "2026-06-03T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 6 (xsentinel_20260602_073812). Verdict held corroborated, confidence_score held 65. Aggregator relay of an event already anchored by the claim's existing rows; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:eurogamer_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; direct summer marketing support" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gamespot_news_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; direct marketing-push support" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:pushsquare_news_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; direct marketing timing support" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:insider_gaming_feed (tier_2 major_press). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: major_press first; direct Zelnick marketing-plan support" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct marketing-intensity corroborator" }, { "at": "2026-06-19T13:15:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Preorder-announcement adjudication, 2026-06-19. The June 18, 2026 first-party marketing beat confirms the summer 2026 marketing campaign has begun: the official GTA VI page added a Vice City clip and the cover art, and Rockstar Newswire announced the June 25 pre-order date. The campaign is now established by first-party activity. Verdict corroborated to confirmed, confidence 65 to 88." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-trailer-3-may-window", "digest": "1a1e91587868b851f5622c02089fa9907baca49df272ef7a120e2ebdb3b0cf04", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-trailer-3-may-window", "title": "GTA 6 Trailer 3 lands in May 2026", "short": "Two tier_3 cohort signals converge on a May 2026 trailer beat; the narrower May 10 to May 16 window has nearly elapsed without a trailer.", "current_verdict": "killed", "confidence_score": 0, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Rockstar Newswire post on or before 2026-05-31T23:59:59Z publishes a GTA 6 trailer", "A press embargo opens across the tier 2 cohort inside a fifteen-minute window for GTA 6 trailer coverage on or before 2026-05-31" ], "kill_conditions": [ "2026-05-31T23:59:59Z closes with no Rockstar Newswire trailer post on GTA 6", "A Take-Two communication on or before 2026-05-31 that explicitly defers the next trailer beat past May", "The May 21 Q4 FY26 earnings call lands with no trailer drop and the Take-Two transcript moves the next marketing beat outside May 2026" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-may-12-preorder-cohort-prediction", "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-summer-marketing-beat" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b6df03c1cf5fe204abd4707c", "source": "reddit_gamingleaksandrumours", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://reddit.com/r/GamingLeaksAndRumours/comments/1t8w811", "label": "r/GamingLeaksAndRumours reveal compilation thread (May 10 to 16 window)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_48c9ab412241b8c49558ae61", "source": "x_synthpotato", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/SynthPotato", "label": "@SynthPotato on the Best Buy email reading: trailer within 5 days" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_eeb0d284bb60568c944883d9", "source": "press_gtaboom", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/take-two-just-set-their-earnings-call-date-8af6", "label": "GTABoom on the May 12 timing read" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_0e4ec5afaa6923037c713147", "source": "rockstar_youtube", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/feeds/videos.xml?user=RockstarGames", "label": "Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed: no GTA 6 Trailer 3 in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a8d2874d7aed8b7e6276d5c6", "source": "rockstar_youtube", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://www.youtube.com/feeds/videos.xml?user=RockstarGames", "label": "Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed reachable on May 15 with no GTA 6 Trailer 3 item" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "May 14, 2026 official-silence review. Manual review of the Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed shows no GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset in the current feed window (tier 1 official absence). Tier 2 press speculation around the Best Buy preorder cycle continues without first-party confirmation. Verdict held at watching." }, { "at": "2026-05-15T07:15:22+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "May 15, 2026 feed-health correction and silence reaffirmation. The Rockstar Games YouTube Atom feed was reviewed manually on May 15 and is reachable, correcting the prior feed-readiness issue. The latest feed entries do not contain a GTA 6 Trailer 3 asset. Tier 1 official absence holds. The May 31 window has not expired." }, { "at": "2026-06-10T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "killed", "note": "Slice 28V.8 verdict transition watching to killed per operator approval: claim window (Trailer 3 lands May 2026) lapsed 2026-05-31 with no asset posted; cross-claim negative evidence gta6-rockstar-youtube-trailer3-silence-2026-05 (confirmed/95). Score 40 to 0; confidence_band held tier_3_unverified per killed-band vocabulary convention. Condition strings remain pristine; lapse recorded here per state_history discipline." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-uk-retailer-pricing-unconfirmed", "digest": "9ae0d38dc6b815b12e6c8cdfc3136b3d545baa5a3ffb3d1ba18b5b72f7b548cb", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-uk-retailer-pricing-unconfirmed", "title": "UK retailer pricing claims for GTA 6 remain unconfirmed by Rockstar or platform-holder sources", "short": "Insider Gaming reported UK digital pricing surfacing on retailer listings via Loaded. Tier 2 amplification only, characterized as likely placeholder. No Rockstar Newswire, PlayStation Blog, or Xbox Wire pricing confirmation.", "current_verdict": "contested", "confidence_score": 35, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire publishes UK regional pricing that matches the Loaded listing", "PlayStation Blog or Xbox Wire publishes a UK digital storefront listing carrying the matching price" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Retailer listings prove to be placeholders (no purchase fulfillment at the quoted UK digital price)", "Rockstar or a platform holder publishes regional pricing that does not match the Loaded listing", "90 days from publish with no first-party pricing confirmation" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_df8cb107690f209c701f5a00", "source": "press_insider_gaming", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://insider-gaming.com/gta-6-digital-price-appears-online/", "label": "Insider Gaming on the Loaded UK digital pricing listing" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_22356b5d1fc2100b66fd587d", "source": "playstation_blog", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://blog.playstation.com/feed/", "label": "PlayStation Blog RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing post in current window" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_f6b7c7f2364e357902604447", "source": "xbox_wire", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://news.xbox.com/en-us/feed/", "label": "Xbox Wire RSS feed: no GTA 6 pricing post in current window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "contested", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-vi-page-preorder-code-readiness-signal", "digest": "1bf2a44e389afe1faefe7064f2ffe534d7456a12ae26eea9a327f42c208fa649", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-vi-page-preorder-code-readiness-signal", "title": "GTA 6 /VI page preorder tracking code remains a community-attributed launch-readiness signal", "short": "Reddit r/GamingLeaksAndRumours surfaced community attribution of cta_preorder analytics code on Rockstar's /VI page. The desk treats it as tier 3 community page-inspection. It does not confirm official preorder availability. No Rockstar preorder posts in official feeds yet.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 65, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar Newswire confirms GTA 6 preorder availability via the /VI page", "A platform holder publishes a preorder post that links readers into the /VI page navigation" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Rockstar removes the preorder tracking code from the /VI page without a preorder launch", "Independent page inspection no longer surfaces the cta_preorder code references on the /VI page", "90 days from publish with no Rockstar Newswire preorder post referencing the /VI page" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "gta6-platform-holder-preorder-silence-2026-05" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_e31c279571f6efe015e2907e", "source": "reddit_gamingleaksandrumours", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://www.reddit.com/r/GamingLeaksAndRumours/search/?q=%2FVI%20preorder%20code&restrict_sr=1", "label": "r/GamingLeaksAndRumours: community page-inspection post on /VI preorder tracking code" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_rockstar_vi_vicecity_preorder_20260618", "source": "rockstar_vi", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.rockstargames.com/VI", "label": "Official Grand Theft Auto VI page carrying the June 25 pre-order date, the cover art, and a new Vice City clip" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T06:22:38+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-06-19T13:15:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Preorder-announcement adjudication, 2026-06-19. The community-attributed pre-order readiness signal on the GTA VI page resolved into an actual first-party pre-order: the official page now carries the June 25, 2026 pre-order date. The readiness reading is corroborated by the first-party page itself. Verdict watching to corroborated, confidence 35 to 65." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-wc2026-marketing-campaign", "digest": "22f8717a8e2da75e8d129f20fe7bceb1caa8366b980550574264aed7dfeb0739", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-wc2026-marketing-campaign", "title": "GTA 6 marketing campaign during 2026 FIFA World Cup", "short": "Single tier_3 source claims Rockstar plans GTA 6 ads during World Cup 2026 matches. Not corroborated by tier_1 or tier_2.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 30, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Take-Two SEC 8-K filing that references the marketing partnership", "A Rockstar Newswire post announcing the World Cup sponsorship", "A FIFA 2026 partner announcement that names Take-Two or Rockstar", "A TV-ad regulatory filing in a major market", "Independent tier_2 press reporting that corroborates the claim" ], "kill_conditions": [ "@TouchlineX retracts or deletes the post", "A Take-Two CEO denial in an earnings call", "A FIFA 2026 partner list that omits Rockstar and Take-Two", "Ninety days elapse without tier_1 or tier_2 corroboration" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-console-first-by-design" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a3f12de08bf35819a1d4cea7", "source": "x_touchlinex", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/TouchlineX/status/2054456614791299153", "label": "@TouchlineX X post claiming Rockstar World Cup 2026 marketing (canonical status URL recovered via R1 Session 3)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-13T16:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-28T13:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Evidence provenance upgrade, no verdict change. The seed evidence row stored only the bare TouchlineX profile URL because the Phase 1B producer-miss (Slice 28U.10.2) kept the cohort from capturing the status URL. Slice 28U.11 v2.1 R1 per-handle recall (Session 3, run xsentinel_20260528_094833) recovered the canonical status URL for the same 2026-05-13 post via candidate xsc_25eab87dbfc04f1fb0e20a3b. Verdict held watching, confidence_score held 30: one same-handle tier_3 community source does not satisfy this claim's tier_2 / first-party confirm_conditions." } ] } }, { "id": "gta6-xbox-store-lists-november-19", "digest": "a890e850de6ef0d3cd66062aefe766e352678037f62e18386cc411fc47edba6d", "canonical": { "id": "gta6-xbox-store-lists-november-19", "title": "Xbox storefront page surfaces GTA VI ahead of November 2026 launch", "short": "GTAVI_Countdown reported the Xbox wishlist page listing November 19. Current Xbox product infrastructure verifies the GTA VI page and product id, but the date field needs first-party capture.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 55, "confidence_band": "platform_holder_partial", "confirm_conditions": [ "Xbox or Microsoft page or catalog visibly exposes November 19, 2026 in a current first-party field", "Xbox Store pre-order page goes live with November 19", "Rockstar, Take-Two, or Xbox cross-promotion names November 19 and links the Xbox page" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Xbox or Microsoft removes the GTA VI product page or changes the product id to a non-release listing", "Xbox or Microsoft page or catalog explicitly omits or changes the November 19 date after capture", "Rockstar or Take-Two announces a date other than November 19", "The cohort post is deleted or corrected and no first-party captured date evidence exists", "Microsoft catalog or page shows placeholder-only dates on review with no first-party date support" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-console-first-by-design" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_e94dcdb14e5eec55c412b00e", "source": "xbox_store", "tier": "tier_1 platform_holder", "url": "https://www.xbox.com/en-US/games/store/grand-theft-auto-vi/9NL3WWNZLZZN", "label": "Xbox storefront product page for Grand Theft Auto VI (product id 9NL3WWNZLZZN)" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_2dc3d06903ff4707a20900cc", "source": "x_gtavi_countdown", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/GTAVI_Countdown/status/2057858683434889664", "label": "GTAVI_Countdown X cohort citation reporting the Xbox wishlist page lists November 19" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_e9570be23cce7fd6ed11ff9c", "source": "xbox_store", "tier": "tier_1 platform_holder", "url": "https://www.xbox.com/en-US/games/store/grand-theft-auto-vi/9NL3WWNZLZZN", "label": "Xbox storefront page check 2026-05-26 confirms product page presence but no visible November 19 date" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-25T16:47:04.911035+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed from Slice 28U.2 reconciliation of Phase 1A Session 3 promote_to_claim_draft xsc_2dc3d06903ff4707a20900cc. Xbox storefront product page tier_1 verifies the product id; Microsoft catalog OriginalReleaseDate is placeholder (9998-12-30); the November 19 date itself is cohort-reported until first-party capture lands." }, { "at": "2026-05-26T08:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Negative-evidence attachment. Verdict held at watching (no transition), confidence_score 58 to 55, confidence_band unchanged (platform_holder_partial). Pattern mirrors the held-verdict-with-evidence-added shape used on gta6-launches-2026-11-19; the verdict stays put while the chain records the audit-trail signal." } ] } }, { "id": "mw4-october-date-before-gta6", "digest": "9eb9149f3ea43232f982b21b234ce19a0aa1792f5ddfaf9f09f98761ee0f9aeb", "canonical": { "id": "mw4-october-date-before-gta6", "title": "Call of Duty Modern Warfare 4 dates October 23, ahead of GTA 6 on November 19", "short": "GameSpot reported Activision setting Call of Duty Modern Warfare 4 for October 23, 2026, which is 27 days before the November 19 GTA 6 launch. The report adds that Modern Warfare 4 will skip Game Pass at launch.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 66, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Activision publishes the Modern Warfare 4 October 23 date on an official channel", "A platform storefront lists Modern Warfare 4 with an October 23, 2026 release date" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Activision moves Modern Warfare 4 off the October 23 date", "A platform storefront shows a Modern Warfare 4 date that overlaps the GTA 6 launch week" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "fable-2027-delay-gta6-scheduling-pressure" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_a649de28ed0eed2f8e7a9ba1", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/call-of-duty-modern-warfare-4-release-date-is-close-to-gta-6-wont-be-on-game-pass/", "label": "GameSpot on the Modern Warfare 4 October 23 date relative to GTA 6" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6e3f214b73cd4208a7200bc4", "source": "x_synthpotato", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/SynthPotato/status/2062091359100534846", "label": "@SynthPotato notes Phantom Blade Zero dating Oct 29, MW4-dates-ahead-of-GTA-6 October window-positioning breadth (X Sentinel Session 7)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: GameSpot dates Modern Warfare 4 to October 23, 27 days before GTA 6." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T12:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Tier_2 amplification corroboration via X Sentinel Session 7 (xsentinel_20260605_075411). Verdict held corroborated, confidence_score held 66. @SynthPotato social signal; audit-trail breadth, not a verdict change." } ] } }, { "id": "radarsix-source-chain-example-live", "digest": "beafb352e027e01aceba4523d115d88e45edb52358d56e5284ee0b45c4eec1ad", "canonical": { "id": "radarsix-source-chain-example-live", "title": "Radar Six worked source-chain example is live on radarsix.com", "short": "The Slice 26I claim is now walked end to end above the fold on radarsix.com.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 92, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "The chain remains rendered above the fold on radarsix.com", "Stage URLs continue to resolve to Take-Two IR, Eurogamer, methodology, and the @RadarSixHQ post" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A regression that removes the SourceChain component from radarsix.com", "A Take-Two IR document change that breaks the Tier 1 link", "A corrected dev-cost figure from Take-Two that invalidates the chain" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": null, "source": "radarsix", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://radarsix.com/", "label": "Radar Six own work (Slice 26R)" }, { "source_observation_id": null, "source": "radarsix_methodology", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://radarsix.com/methodology", "label": "Radar Six methodology" }, { "source_observation_id": null, "source": "x_radarsixhq", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://x.com/radarsixhq/status/2054276034468380929", "label": "@RadarSixHQ post linking back to the chain" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-12T18:55:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-06-11T09:30:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Chain repair: stripped source_observation_id from the three illustrative self-source evidence entries. Two ids never existed in source_observation (dead /obs/ permalinks); one resolved to an unrelated GameSpot row. Entries keep source, tier, label, and URL; no observation rows were fabricated. Verdict and confidence untouched. Closes the Day 58 dangling-srcobs audit finding." } ] } }, { "id": "remedy-control-resonant-gta6-window-tide-lift", "digest": "d3566a79107b938df76cf1ff903afbafea387cae82d35468ff0147b50e1eab40", "canonical": { "id": "remedy-control-resonant-gta6-window-tide-lift", "title": "Remedy CEO expects GTA 6 to lift the wider games market for Control Resonant", "short": "PC Gamer reported the Remedy chief executive saying he is not worried about Control Resonant launching close to GTA 6, and that he expects GTA 6 to sell more consoles and raise demand across the games market. Single tier 2 source.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 50, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A second tier 2 outlet carries the Remedy CEO on the GTA 6 tide-lift framing", "Remedy publishes a Control Resonant launch window that sits near the GTA 6 window" ], "kill_conditions": [ "The Remedy CEO walks back the tide-lift framing in a later statement", "Remedy moves Control Resonant well away from the GTA 6 launch window" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "mw4-october-date-before-gta6" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_ffbe33fe168c13ae97e66ce5", "source": "pcgamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pcgamer.com/games/grand-theft-auto/remedys-ceo-isnt-worried-about-control-resonant-launching-close-to-gta-6-its-going-to-put-the-spotlight-even-more-on-games-than-maybe-in-past-years/", "label": "PC Gamer on the Remedy CEO view of Control Resonant near GTA 6" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_4d2df23a84f76cd7cbb2ea86", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-may-not-scare-every-publisher-after-all-2751", "label": "GTABoom relays the Remedy CEO theory on releasing Control Resonant inside the GTA 6 window" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: PC Gamer reports the Remedy CEO expecting GTA 6 to lift the games market." }, { "at": "2026-06-10T18:10:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). GTABoom carries the Remedy CEO stay-in-the-window theory independently of the PC Gamer seed row. Verdict held at watching, confidence_score held 50, confidence_band held confirmed_major_press; evidence breadth grows by one amplification carrier. Closes the Day 58 open-list spot-check on this row." } ] } }, { "id": "rockstar-ai-hiring-tools-scope-gta6", "digest": "9b6da69d3a592278aaeeb647f8ad350c04fc8fe510eb63d2df8539f074106385", "canonical": { "id": "rockstar-ai-hiring-tools-scope-gta6", "title": "Rockstar hires AI roles scoped to GTA 6 tooling rather than shipped content", "short": "GTABoom reports Rockstar AI job listings tied to GTA 6 with a tools-and-pipeline scope rather than generative content in the shipped game. Verifiable against Rockstar's own careers surface, which gives the row a clean first-party confirmation path.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 40, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "Rockstar careers listings observable by the desk name AI roles with tools, pipeline, or automation scope tied to GTA 6 era work", "A Rockstar or Take-Two statement describes the AI scope as production tooling" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Listings or statements show generative AI content scope in the shipped game", "The cited listings cannot be located on the careers surface within 30 days" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-ai-cost-control-frame", "take2-unreleased-software-costs-2149m-fy26" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_29fd24cfa39166b0b1cc1158", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/rockstar-is-hiring-for-ai-for-gta-6-but-not-the-kind-you-think-e0fc", "label": "GTABoom on Rockstar AI hiring for GTA 6 with a tooling scope reading" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: GTABoom carries the tools-scope reading of Rockstar AI hiring. The careers surface is first-party observable, so the confirmation path is concrete." } ] } }, { "id": "rockstar-uk-political-pressure-union-busting-2026", "digest": "4a97ac9d900640ba3fe121e1fd2ded70fa5c5d4d6745d75aa99259ea259fa1b3", "canonical": { "id": "rockstar-uk-political-pressure-union-busting-2026", "title": "Rockstar faces renewed UK political pressure over alleged union-busting dismissals during the GTA 6 launch year", "short": "Eurogamer reported UK MP statements accusing Rockstar of obstructing legal processes around dismissed employees during the GTA 6 launch year. Tier 2 political pressure reporting, not adjudicated wrongdoing. No Take-Two or Rockstar IR or Newswire response in current feeds.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 60, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A UK tribunal or court adjudicates against Rockstar in the dismissed-employee dispute", "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire surfaces an official response that engages the substance of the accusations", "A second tier 2 outlet independently corroborates the MP statements with on-record sourcing" ], "kill_conditions": [ "UK legal processes resolve without adverse findings against Rockstar in the dismissed-employee dispute", "MPs retract or withdraw the obstructing-legal-process accusations", "90 days from publish with no follow-up tier 2 coverage and no parliamentary action" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_e3c24ccacd1ad02277d8505d", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/gta-6-developer-rockstar-union-busting-legal-proceedings", "label": "Eurogamer: UK MPs accuse Rockstar of obstructing legal processes around dismissed employees" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T06:22:38+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "rockstar-workers-union-public-launch-2026", "digest": "21a12a44c3ed5a24c551dee9e6a16c5d21fbae1dec3135afde215d6b56bffe7e", "canonical": { "id": "rockstar-workers-union-public-launch-2026", "title": "Rockstar Game Workers Union launches publicly during the GTA 6 year", "short": "Eurogamer and PC Gamer reported Rockstar Games developers in the UK publicly launching the Rockstar Game Workers Union, a subsidiary of the IWGB, as the legal dispute over 31 dismissed employees continues. Tier 2 reporting from two outlets.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 68, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A second wave of tier 2 coverage carries the union launch with on-record IWGB sourcing", "The IWGB publishes an official statement naming the Rockstar Game Workers Union" ], "kill_conditions": [ "The IWGB retracts or withdraws the union launch announcement", "Rockstar publishes a statement that the reported union does not represent its UK staff" ], "related_claims": [ "rockstar-uk-political-pressure-union-busting-2026" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_121a4ac4a83a48a9dcf808ed", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/were-determined-to-win-justice-for-the-31-fired-workers-rockstar-games-workers-publicly-launch-union-as-legal-battle-with-the-gta-6-maker-rages-on", "label": "Eurogamer on the public launch of the Rockstar Game Workers Union" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_b61daaad0738a0eb2ac6b839", "source": "pcgamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.pcgamer.com/gaming-industry/6-months-before-the-launch-of-grand-theft-auto-6-rockstar-employees-in-the-uk-have-formed-a-union/", "label": "PC Gamer on UK Rockstar employees forming a union" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_81d4b48304ed10fc4735d67e", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-developers-go-public-with-first-rockstar-games-union-bd4a", "label": "GTABoom Rockstar union corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: Eurogamer and PC Gamer report the public union launch six months before GTA 6." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct labor/union corroborator" } ] } }, { "id": "sony-pushes-ps4-to-ps5-pre-gta6", "digest": "d99892a7fdcfda732bdcd7a9ca7ba001bc579c6e92decead2dd1f333afe03cd2", "canonical": { "id": "sony-pushes-ps4-to-ps5-pre-gta6", "title": "Sony nudges PS4 owners to PS5 ahead of GTA 6", "short": "Eurogamer reported Sony encouraging PS4 hopefuls to upgrade to PS5 before GTA 6.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 65, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A PlayStation marketing or partnership filing", "A Take-Two earnings call detail on Sony arrangements" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Sony correction or platform statement reversing the read", "A Rockstar release timing announcement that breaks the console-first frame" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-console-first-by-design" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_45d84d463ef7bc0bd373586c", "source": "eurogamer", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.eurogamer.net/gta-6-hopefuls-encouraged-by-sony-to-upgrade-to-ps5-now", "label": "Eurogamer: Sony PS4-to-PS5 upgrade push" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_045cff06b72a4d4fb7efb843", "source": "x_charlieintel", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://x.com/charlieINTEL/status/2052906954599641499", "label": "charlieINTEL X cohort citation on PlayStation PS4-to-PS5 upgrade prompts before GTA VI" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3f70578781664be7a17d0ee4", "source": "x_videotech", "tier": "tier_2 original-source citation", "url": "https://x.com/videotech/status/2052858385117094097", "label": "@videotech X cohort citation (R1 Session 5 per-handle recall): Sony promo emails to users who wishlisted GTA VI but do not own a PS5, encouraging a console purchase. Behavior-variant signal on the PS4-to-PS5 nudge thesis." } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-12T14:23:31+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-13T15:19:52.203927+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Verdict ladder migration (Day 29)" }, { "at": "2026-05-25T16:47:04.911035+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "charlieINTEL cohort citation independently amplifies Eurogamer's PS4-to-PS5 upgrade-prompt thesis. Verdict moves watching to corroborated; confidence_band stays confirmed_major_press because no Sony first-party statement has landed, the upgrade-prompt thesis is still a press-and-cohort read." }, { "at": "2026-05-29T09:50:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Evidence attach (Slice 28U.17). @videotech X cohort citation (R1 Session 5 per-handle recall): Sony promo emails to users who wishlisted GTA VI but do not own a PS5, encouraging a console purchase. Behavior-variant signal on the PS4-to-PS5 nudge thesis. confidence_score 62 to 65; verdict held at corroborated, band held at confirmed_major_press, conditions pristine. Source: Session 5 videotech net-new candidate xsc_3f70578781664be7a17d0ee4." } ] } }, { "id": "take2-ai-cost-control-frame", "digest": "e0d397e114020200f6515d5f43cbcbc2c15db65ff1f40a8eca49134794a5fcb5", "canonical": { "id": "take2-ai-cost-control-frame", "title": "Take-Two frames AI as a possible cost-control tool before GTA 6", "short": "GameSpot reported Take-Two discussing AI to bring costs down on smarter games.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 50, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Take-Two earnings call clarifying production cost levers", "A Rockstar production note referencing AI-assisted tooling" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Take-Two correction or retraction of the AI cost-control framing", "A first-party Take-Two filing showing cost-discipline measures not relying on AI" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_aa2b9c119550f23e28efbed5", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-company-exploring-ai-to-help-make-games-smarter-and-possibly-bring-down-costs/1100-6539870/", "label": "GameSpot: Take-Two AI cost-control comments" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_29fd24cfa39166b0b1cc1158", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/rockstar-is-hiring-for-ai-for-gta-6-but-not-the-kind-you-think-e0fc", "label": "GTABoom AI hiring context corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_7594f5abfd07322e3d743ddc", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/take-two-uses-ai-everywhere-except-gta-6-this-is-why-that-matters-6222", "label": "GTABoom AI daily-use no-game-touch corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_1b79f21ab04dd406f9167a17", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-ai-comments-expose-a-bigger-industry-problem-22c8", "label": "GTABoom AI-comments industry-frame corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_9bb3eef44a28be29160acf90", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/zelnick-to-retire-his-best-ai-joke-because-gta-6-is-less-than-6-months-away-77b9", "label": "GTABoom Zelnick AI-frame continuity corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-12T14:23:31+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-13T15:19:52.203927+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Verdict ladder migration (Day 29)" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct AI-hiring/context corroborator; no verdict change" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct AI-usage / no-game-touch framing" }, { "at": "2026-06-10T10:00:00+00:00", "to": "watching", "note": "Slice 28V.8 attached 2 GTABoom tier_2 amplification corroborations (AI-comments industry frame, Zelnick AI-joke continuity). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held at watching/50/confirmed_major_press; evidence breadth only." } ] } }, { "id": "take2-ir-post-may-11-silence-2026-05", "digest": "71b293c4132ad873356a0dcaa9ea776db83245f1f6ef31b67e4b49952c03b444", "canonical": { "id": "take2-ir-post-may-11-silence-2026-05", "title": "Take-Two Interactive Investor Relations has not added a post-May-11 GTA 6 corporate notice in the current RSS window", "short": "Take-Two IR RSS feed shows no GTA 6 specific corporate notice posted after the May 11 TD Cowen TMT Conference entry. Tier 1 empirical absence. Feed continues to surface earnings cadence entries unrelated to GTA 6 marketing or launch logistics.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 95, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Already met: manual RSS review on 2026-05-15 carries the post-May-11 empirical absence", "A second manual review inside the same window reproduces the absence" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR posts a GTA 6 specific corporate notice after May 11 in the current RSS window", "The IR feed surface is deprecated or replaced without a successor first-party channel" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-td-cowen-may-28", "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_27b669ddf47f5395a6ec41bf", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official absence", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases", "label": "Take-Two IR RSS feed: no post-May-11 GTA 6 corporate notice" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3af6c7f9bbed2d2f17785af3", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases/news-release-details/take-two-interactive-software-inc-present-td-cowen-54th-annual", "label": "Take-Two IR: May 11 TD Cowen 54th Annual TMT Conference (latest relevant entry)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-15T06:22:38+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-22T08:45:02Z", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 21 2026 first-party Take-Two activity occurred on a different channel (SEC 8-K filing via EDGAR), not via Take-Two IR RSS. Claim remains true on its strict reading: IR RSS continues to show no GTA 6 specific corporate notice in current window." } ] } }, { "id": "take2-piper-sandler-280-initiation", "digest": "d5f46be704c573d106b2059063c9a87da0cea339b3d3e917b4050d4b0c47b390", "canonical": { "id": "take2-piper-sandler-280-initiation", "title": "Piper Sandler initiates Take-Two at $280 on GTA 6 demand", "short": "GTABoom relays Piper Sandler initiating Take-Two coverage at Overweight with a $280 price target on June 2, 2026, against a $222 close, citing GTA 6 demand scale and an empty November holiday window. The desk holds one amplification carrier and no financial-press row yet.", "current_verdict": "watching", "confidence_score": 40, "confidence_band": "tier_3_unverified", "confirm_conditions": [ "A financial outlet (Bloomberg, Reuters, Barron's, MarketWatch) or the Piper Sandler note itself confirms the initiation, the Overweight rating, and the $280 target", "Take-Two stock coverage aggregators list the Piper Sandler target on the record" ], "kill_conditions": [ "The reported note cannot be located in any analyst-coverage record within 60 days", "Piper Sandler publicly corrects or withdraws the reported target" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-stock-may-preorder-cycle", "gta6-analyst-80-pricing-pressure-2026-05", "gta6-launches-2026-11-19" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_12e9198eda6906dc180477a8", "source": "gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/piper-sandler-bets-10-billion-in-projected-value-on-gta-6-e46d", "label": "GTABoom on Piper Sandler's $280 Take-Two price target and the implied $10B in projected value" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-06-10T15:30:00Z", "to": "watching", "note": "Initial seed: GTABoom relays a Piper Sandler initiation of Take-Two at $280, dated June 2. Single amplification carrier; watching until a financial-press or primary-note row lands." } ] } }, { "id": "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21", "digest": "e20cf784110dffab5e4ace62ffcb9a3e6ef2dea4d1df149130234fb8395b6087", "canonical": { "id": "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21", "title": "Take-Two reports Q4 and Fiscal Year 2026 results on May 21, 2026", "short": "Take-Two IR announced the Q4 and Fiscal Year 2026 earnings release for Thursday, May 21, 2026.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 87, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Take-Two publishes the Q4/FY26 press release on 2026-05-21 with GTA 6 referenced inside the prepared remarks or the release body", "An 8-K is filed on or about 2026-05-21 carrying the Q4/FY26 results" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two reschedules the Q4/FY26 earnings call away from 2026-05-21", "The 2026-05-21 release ships with no GTA 6 mention inside the prepared remarks or the press release" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_37243e4ec04873f32178053e", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://www.take2games.com/ir", "label": "Take-Two IR Q4 FY26 earnings calendar announcement" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_eeb0d284bb60568c944883d9", "source": "press_gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/take-two-just-set-their-earnings-call-date-8af6", "label": "GTABoom on the Take-Two Q4 FY26 earnings date" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_daea23ccbe1c066d06bc94bc", "source": "take2_sec_edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037260/ttwo4q26earningsrelease.htm", "label": "Take-Two 8-K filed 2026-05-21 reports Q4/FY26 results ($1.58B Q4 net bookings, $6.72B FY26 total) and initial FY27 net bookings outlook $8.0B-$8.2B" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-15T13:30:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. SEC EDGAR scheduler captured the prior Q3 FY26 8-K and 10-Q filings as tier 1 official regulatory context for the upcoming May 21 Take-Two Q4 FY26 earnings event. Verdict held at confirmed. Confidence band and confidence score unchanged." }, { "at": "2026-05-17T19:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 17, 2026 SEC EDGAR re-audit under the strict standard from Track A. Both Q3 FY26 EDGAR rows are removed. The 8-K body (sha256 bdb60920) is silent on Q4 FY26 and May 21 earnings-event timing. The 10-Q body (sha256 432aa73e) is a Q3 quarterly report whose forward-looking section does not discuss its own future earnings-call date — proximity-only. The take2_ir Q4 FY26 earnings calendar announcement remains the chain's tier_1 official anchor and the GTABoom row is unchanged. Verdict held at confirmed 84. The claim's confirm-evidence was always the IR calendar announcement, not the Q3 quarterly. Chain rigor correction, not verdict movement." }, { "at": "2026-05-22T08:45:02Z", "to": "confirmed", "note": "May 21 2026 Take-Two 8-K Exhibit 99.1 published; event realized as predicted. Q4/FY26 results delivered with $1.58B Q4 net bookings exceeding guidance; FY27 outlook $8.0B-$8.2B with GTA 6 as central revenue anchor. Evidence chain reinforced from tier-2 press prediction to tier-1 regulatory confirmation." } ] } }, { "id": "take2-stock-may-preorder-cycle", "digest": "591a94d9666ff41de611a86787a6ee887b69b8c6211213e71651e4b8c949af39", "canonical": { "id": "take2-stock-may-preorder-cycle", "title": "Take-Two stock moved higher during the May 2026 GTA 6 preorder speculation cycle", "short": "GameSpot and VGC reported Take-Two share-price movement during the May 14, 2026 Best Buy affiliate preorder leak cycle. Tier 2 amplification only. No Rockstar Newswire or Take-Two IR confirmation that the preorder window is committed.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 65, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire opens the preorder window in May 2026", "The May 21, 2026 Q4 FY26 earnings call references the May preorder cycle in prepared remarks or transcript" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two IR or Rockstar Newswire denies the May preorder timing speculation", "A subsequent Take-Two filing attributes the stock movement to a non-preorder cause", "90 days from publish with no tier 1 acknowledgment of preorder activity inside the May window" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-best-buy-preorder-may-18-21-claim", "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6e5f51b50245f15fb3f5ed87", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-owners-stock-price-surges-after-news-that-preorders-may-start-soon/1100-6539957/", "label": "GameSpot on Take-Two stock surge during the preorder speculation cycle" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3391e9560337949a6e9accc6", "source": "press_vgc", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.videogameschronicle.com/news/best-buy-tells-affiliates-its-starting-gta-6-pre-orders-next-week-sparking-speculation-that-a-new-trailer-is-coming/", "label": "VGC on the Best Buy affiliate email driving the preorder speculation cycle" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_7d394fbeb5e49d55df2e8f08", "source": "press_gtaboom", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/gta-6-pre-order-leak-moves-billions-in-a-single-morning-12b8", "label": "GTABoom: Take-Two $2 billion market-value gain from the leaked Best Buy email" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_c01b67b2307c4c0a9e25b994", "source": "x_frogboyx1gaming", "tier": "tier_3 community", "url": "https://x.com/Frogboyx1Gaming/status/2054973312154144794", "label": "@Frogboyx1Gaming X recall hit: Take-Two stock jumps on GTA VI preorder buzz (R1 Session 3 xsentinel_20260528_094833)" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" }, { "at": "2026-05-15T07:15:22+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "May 15, 2026 evidence reinforcement. GTABoom carried a May 14 Take-Two $2 billion market-value article at tier 2 amplification. The GameSpot stock-surge article remains the V2 anchor for market-cap coverage and is not re-recorded. Market-cap movement does not constitute Rockstar preorder confirmation. Verdict held at corroborated." }, { "at": "2026-05-28T13:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Tier_3 community recall corroboration via R1 Session 3. Verdict held corroborated, confidence_score held 65. Audit-trail completeness; does not change the verdict." } ] } }, { "id": "take2-td-cowen-may-28", "digest": "8c57f329b520bc58dcce2d7cb5e7d4041331b5bd49ad9c8e966985b21fe43d61", "canonical": { "id": "take2-td-cowen-may-28", "title": "Take-Two Interactive scheduled for May 28 TD Cowen TMT conference appearance", "short": "Take-Two IR announced a May 28, 2026 TD Cowen 54th Annual TMT Conference appearance via the IR newsroom. Tier 1 calendar anchor, single-source by design. No guarantee of GTA 6-specific commentary, but the date sits inside the launch-year fiscal window.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 95, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "Already met: tier 1 IR announcement carries the date and venue", "TD Cowen publishes a conference agenda or replay confirming the May 28 Take-Two slot" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Take-Two cancels or reschedules the TD Cowen appearance without naming a replacement venue", "The May 28, 2026 date passes with no Take-Two presentation logged on the TD Cowen conference agenda" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21", "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_3af6c7f9bbed2d2f17785af3", "source": "take2_ir", "tier": "tier_1 official", "url": "https://ir.take2games.com/news-releases/news-release-details/take-two-interactive-software-inc-present-td-cowen-54th-annual", "label": "Take-Two IR: TD Cowen 54th Annual TMT Conference" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-14T18:31:48+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed from claim card" } ] } }, { "id": "take2-unreleased-software-costs-2149m-fy26", "digest": "98f5f205a2ca30caececcf8511df531fc86e93f955ec7fbd92978a19cbaff8ef", "canonical": { "id": "take2-unreleased-software-costs-2149m-fy26", "title": "Take-Two FY2026 10-K reports $2,149.7M in capitalized costs for unreleased titles", "short": "Take-Two FY2026 Form 10-K Note 7 discloses $2,149.7M in software development costs and licenses tied to titles that have not been released, up from $1,815.0M a year earlier. Tier 1 regulatory figure anchored in the filing body.", "current_verdict": "confirmed", "confidence_score": 88, "confidence_band": "confirmed_official", "confirm_conditions": [ "A later Take-Two filing restates the unreleased-titles figure at or above $2,149.7M", "Take-Two prepared remarks reference the capitalized development costs for unreleased titles" ], "kill_conditions": [ "A Take-Two amendment or restatement reduces the unreleased-titles figure below the disclosed $2,149.7M", "A subsequent 10-Q or 10-K removes the Note 7 unreleased-titles disclosure" ], "related_claims": [ "take2-q4-fy26-earnings-may-21", "gta6-fiscal-2027-revenue-anchor", "gta5-230m-sales-before-gta6-window" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_446ec545449a6d17c9b947d5", "source": "edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037434/ttwo-20260331.htm", "label": "Take-Two FY2026 Form 10-K body, Note 7 software development costs" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_edgar_ttwo_10k_fy26_037434", "source": "edgar", "tier": "tier_1 official regulatory", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/946581/000162828026037434/ttwo-20260331.htm", "label": "Desk read-only retrieval of 10-K Note 7 unreleased-titles figure" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_d64a6e6364c530a9cf51fea0", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/zelnick-says-gta-6-development-budget-is-why-it-has-no-real-competition-8bd4", "label": "GTABoom budget-as-weapon corroboration" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_5eb0866da8cc9c7dfbe87818", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/how-many-copies-does-gta-6-need-to-sell-before-rockstar-makes-money-c2c9", "label": "GTABoom cost-recovery corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Initial seed: Take-Two FY2026 10-K Note 7 anchors $2,149.7M for unreleased titles." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct budget/cost thesis corroborator" }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "confirmed", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: direct economics/cost-recovery corroborator" } ] } }, { "id": "zelnick-consumer-demand-inflation-frame-gta6", "digest": "fa4b57776023b519d79bc742a2b538b228047539c2b7426ba882329c3239b16c", "canonical": { "id": "zelnick-consumer-demand-inflation-frame-gta6", "title": "Take-Two CEO frames GTA 6 demand as resilient against rising consumer costs", "short": "GameSpot reported Take-Two chief Strauss Zelnick arguing that buyers will line up for GTA 6 despite higher prices for gas and groceries, while he declined to name the GTA 6 price. Tier 2 reporting of a demand-side framing.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 62, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "A Take-Two earnings call reaffirms the demand-resilience framing for GTA 6", "A second tier 2 outlet carries Zelnick on the same demand framing" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Zelnick walks back the demand-resilience framing in a later statement", "A Take-Two filing reports softening pre-launch demand indicators for GTA 6" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-analyst-80-pricing-pressure-2026-05", "gta6-price-willingness-polling-may-2026" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_546bd473aad85e0b95b4b19a", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/take-two-boss-knows-youre-paying-more-for-gas-groceries-says-youll-buy-gta-6-anyway/", "label": "GameSpot on Zelnick framing GTA 6 demand against rising costs" }, { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_6748d12802c6283266abae7a", "source": "rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed", "tier": "tier_2 amplification", "url": "https://www.gtaboom.com/take-two-reveals-why-gta-6-sales-will-defy-rising-costs-7d58", "label": "GTABoom recession-proof demand-frame corroboration" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: GameSpot reports Zelnick framing GTA 6 demand as resilient against rising costs." }, { "at": "2026-06-06T15:00:00+00:00", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Slice 28V.5B held corroboration attach via rss_atom_feed:gtaboom_feed (tier_2 amplification). Verdict, confidence_score, and confidence_band held; evidence breadth only. Reason: GTABoom corroborator; target has non-GTABoom foundation" } ] } }, { "id": "zelnick-rockstar-review-score-quality-frame", "digest": "62e7584dd1dbe096da137d17a8962abdb46bead354825a68d983c5f18b0467af", "canonical": { "id": "zelnick-rockstar-review-score-quality-frame", "title": "Take-Two CEO ties expected GTA 6 review scores to the Rockstar quality record", "short": "GameSpot reported Take-Two chief Strauss Zelnick saying he expects high GTA 6 review scores and that Rockstar review averages sit in the mid-90s. He framed the scores as a reflection of the studio commitment to quality. Tier 2 reporting.", "current_verdict": "corroborated", "confidence_score": 60, "confidence_band": "confirmed_major_press", "confirm_conditions": [ "GTA 6 launches with an aggregate critic score in the 90s", "A second tier 2 outlet carries Zelnick on the same review-score framing" ], "kill_conditions": [ "Zelnick retracts the high-review-score expectation in a later statement", "GTA 6 launches with an aggregate critic score below the Rockstar average Zelnick cited" ], "related_claims": [ "gta6-launches-2026-11-19", "zelnick-consumer-demand-inflation-frame-gta6" ], "evidence_chain": [ { "source_observation_id": "srcobs_cb88b14e1d0a9979c0706f04", "source": "gamespot", "tier": "tier_2 major_press", "url": "https://www.gamespot.com/articles/gta-6-boss-says-high-review-scores-reflect-rockstars-commitment-to-quality/", "label": "GameSpot on Zelnick tying GTA 6 review expectations to Rockstar scores" } ], "state_history": [ { "at": "2026-05-31T09:00:00Z", "to": "corroborated", "note": "Initial seed: GameSpot reports Zelnick expecting high GTA 6 review scores." } ] } } ] }